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Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rubicon Technology Inc stock $2.01, price $4.76, that is 57.7% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US

RT Rubicon Technology Inc logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Rubicon Technology Inc

RBCN · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 58% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 26.1% net margin (TTM)
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +63.9 %/yr in USD)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Revenue last quarter 21% below a year ago.
Fair value $2.01 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 36/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/8)
Narrow moat 36/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$16.63 $0.7000 Fair Value $2.01 May 2020 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7000 – $16.63 · fair‑value band $2.01 – $2.98 · the $4.76 price screens above the $2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Rubicon Technology, Inc. provides monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems in North America, Asia, and internationally.

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The company offers optical and industrial sapphire products in various shapes and sizes, including sheets, rods, tubes, core, ingots, and prisms for a range of end markets comprising defense and aerospace, specialty lighting, instrumentation, sensors and detectors, semiconductor process equipment, electronic substrates, medical, and laser applications.

It serves defense subcontractors, industrial manufacturers, fabricators, and resellers. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Bensenville, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) currently trades at $4.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.01, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $4.19 per share, and 1 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.76 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.66, and 8 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.01 (bear) to $2.98 (bull), the price of $4.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Rubicon Technology Inc reported revenue of $42.7M in FY2025 versus $4.1M in FY2021, a compound +80.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $44.6M Micro · P/S ratio 14.6 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4300 · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3.6% · Revenue growth (YoY) −20.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −58%, RBCN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.01 Fair Value $2.01 Bull $2.98
Price $4.76 · Downside -57.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $1.56 $1.66 $1.74 74
ROIC Compounder $1.56 $1.66 $1.74 72
Graham-Dodd $1.36 $1.66 $1.87 67
All 9 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.36 $1.66 $1.87 67
EPV $1.56 $1.66 $1.74 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.19 $5.59 $6.99 63
P/S Multiple $2.55 $3.39 $4.24 58
EV/EBIT $1.22 $2.37 $3.51 63
EV/EBITDA $0.4700 $1.36 $2.25 62
EV/Revenue n/a $0.2700 $1.01 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $1.56 $1.66 $1.74 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.93 $4.19 $5.45 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 40
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 48
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2,643.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+128.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−34% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 26.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

RBCN screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with ASML Holding →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 235 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −57.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 26.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −3.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −20.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 12.42× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.84× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Applied Materials, Inc AMAT $332.72 $365.99 +10% vs RBCN
Lam Research Corporation LRCX $200.44 $220.48 +10% vs RBCN
Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 4,040 TWD 4,444 TWD +10% vs RBCN
ASML Holding ASML €1,284 €1,345 +5% vs RBCN
KLA Corporation KLAC $138.49 $129.49 −7% vs RBCN
Entegris, Inc ENTG $127.98 $91.54 −28% vs RBCN
Qnity Electronics, Inc Q $117.00 $70.54 −40% vs RBCN
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 ¥254.00 ¥123.44 −51% vs RBCN
Teradyne, Inc TER $218.22 $66.14 −70% vs RBCN
Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 ¥180.95 ¥45.22 −75% vs RBCN

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Rubicon Technology Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rubicon Technology Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RBCN

Frequently asked questions

Is Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.01 versus a price of $4.76, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RBCN?
Our model-based fair value for Rubicon Technology Inc is $2.01 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.76.
What is the quality score of RBCN?
Rubicon Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.01 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.01, optimistic scenario $2.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rubicon Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.01, about 58% lower versus a price of $4.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.01, optimistic scenario $2.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rubicon Technology Inc it is $2.01 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.76. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Rubicon Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, RBCN trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.76, fair value $2.01, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RBCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.01). For Rubicon Technology Inc the two are $2.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rubicon Technology Inc worth?
The market values Rubicon Technology Inc at about $44.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.76; our models calculate a fair value of $2.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RBCN?
Our models span a range for Rubicon Technology Inc: cautious scenario $2.01, base $2.01, optimistic $2.98 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RBCN?
The PEG ratio of Rubicon Technology Inc is 1.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rubicon Technology Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RBCN from its 52-week high?
Rubicon Technology Inc trades at $4.76, about 29% below its 52-week high of $6.70 and 80% above the low of $2.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rubicon Technology Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rubicon Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.76, calculated fair value $2.01 (−58%), Quality Score 36/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RBCN calculated?
We run Rubicon Technology Inc through 9 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.01 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Rubicon Technology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.76. Our model-based fair value is $2.01, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rubicon Technology Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Rubicon Technology Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The market capitalisation of Rubicon Technology Inc is $44.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rubicon Technology Inc is 14.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Earnings per share at Rubicon Technology Inc are $−0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The net margin of Rubicon Technology Inc is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rubicon Technology Inc is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rubicon Technology Inc is −5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The operating margin of Rubicon Technology Inc is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Revenue at Rubicon Technology Inc is growing −20.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +128%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Earnings per share at Rubicon Technology Inc are growing +168% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) generate?
The free cash flow of Rubicon Technology Inc is −$11.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) carry?
The net debt of Rubicon Technology Inc is $20.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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