Rubicon Technology, Inc (RBCN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $53.3M
Rubicon Technology, Inc
RBCN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +3.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7000 – $16.63 · fair‑value band $1.43 – $1.77 · the $5.80 price screens above the $1.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Rubicon Technology, Inc (RBCN) currently trades at $5.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.43, implying the stock looks roughly 75.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Rubicon Technology, Inc generated revenue of $3.6M at a net margin of 26.1%. Revenue declined 20.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at $20.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.43 (bear case) to $1.77 (bull case); at $5.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 186% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -75%, RBCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($9.00) versus Economic Profit ($1.91). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rubicon Technology, Inc. provides monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems in North America, Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
Rubicon Technology, Inc. provides monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems in North America, Asia, and internationally. The company offers optical and industrial sapphire products in various shapes and sizes, including sheets, rods, tubes, core, ingots, and prisms for a range of end markets comprising defense and aerospace, specialty lighting, instrumentation, sensors and detectors, semiconductor process equipment, electronic substrates, medical, and laser applications. It serves defense subcontractors, industrial manufacturers, fabricators, and resellers. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Bensenville, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rubicon Technology, Inc reported revenue of $42.7M in FY2025 versus $4.1M in FY2021, a compound +80.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025.
RBCN screens 75% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →
Peer Group
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 212 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | C$50.50 | C$15.57 | -69% |
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $579.43 | $143.08 | -75% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $346.10 | $67.57 | -80% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $212.75 | $53.01 | -75% |
| NAURA Technology Group 002371 | ¥774.20 | ¥151.43 | -80% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥350.69 | ¥41.79 | -88% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥832.00 | ¥431.44 | -48% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 6,005 TWD | 1,804 TWD | -70% |
| Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 | ¥325.24 | ¥33.33 | -90% |
| MPI Corporation 6223 | 5,600 TWD | 609.44 TWD | -89% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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