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Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Rubicon Technology Inc $2.02, price $5.55, upside -63.7%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Rubicon Technology Inc
RBCN · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.02 · Strongly overvalued (−64%)
!Quality 35/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +63.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.1% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7000 – $16.63 · fair‑value band $2.02 – $2.98 · the $5.55 price screens above the $2.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
Rubicon Technology, Inc. provides monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems in North America, Asia, and internationally.
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Rubicon Technology, Inc. provides monocrystalline sapphire for applications in optical and industrial systems in North America, Asia, and internationally. The company offers optical and industrial sapphire products in various shapes and sizes, including sheets, rods, tubes, core, ingots, and prisms for a range of end markets comprising defense and aerospace, specialty lighting, instrumentation, sensors and detectors, semiconductor process equipment, electronic substrates, medical, and laser applications. It serves defense subcontractors, industrial manufacturers, fabricators, and resellers. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Bensenville, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) currently trades at $5.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.02, implying the stock looks roughly 175.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $10.09 per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the $5.55 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.91, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.02 (bear) to $2.98 (bull), the price of $5.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rubicon Technology Inc reported revenue of $42.7M in FY2025 versus $4.1M in FY2021, a compound +80.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $52.0M · P/S ratio 14.6 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2300 · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.3% · Operating margin −3.6% · Revenue growth (YoY) −20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −64%, RBCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.02
Fair Value $2.02
Bull $2.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$1.76
$1.91
$2.03
74
ROIC Compounder
$1.76
$1.91
$2.03
70
EV/EBITDA
$3.21
$4.11
$5.00
67
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.36
$9.47
$13.28
61
Lynch FV
$4.89
$6.99
$9.08
59
PEG = 1.0
$4.89
$6.99
$9.08
55
EPV
$1.76
$1.91
$2.03
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$4.19
$5.59
$6.99
63
P/S Multiple
$2.55
$3.39
$4.24
58
EV/EBIT
$3.97
$5.11
$6.26
66
EV/EBITDA
$3.21
$4.11
$5.00
67
EV/Revenue
$2.27
$3.02
$3.76
54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$1.76
$1.91
$2.03
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.06
$10.09
$13.12
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
35/100
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Profitability
24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2,643.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+128.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+63.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−34% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 26.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
RBCN screens 175% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →
Compare Rubicon Technology Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 219 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | €1,503 | €1,350 | −10% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $307.16 | $250.94 | −18% |
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $474.25 | $368.52 | −22% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $188.32 | $149.08 | −21% |
| Teradyne, Inc TER | $389.14 | $66.11 | −83% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥349.35 | ¥117.08 | −66% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥730.30 | ¥322.24 | −56% |
| SJ Semiconductor Corporation 688820 | ¥133.57 | ¥13.84 | −90% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 5,670 TWD | 4,864 TWD | −14% |
| Qnity Electronics, Inc Q | $124.86 | $70.44 | −44% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.02 versus a price of $5.55, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RBCN?
Our model-based fair value for Rubicon Technology Inc is $2.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.55.
What is the quality score of RBCN?
Rubicon Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.02, optimistic scenario $2.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rubicon Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.02, about −64% upside versus a price of $5.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.02, optimistic scenario $2.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rubicon Technology Inc it is $2.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.55. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rubicon Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RBCN trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.55, fair value $2.02, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RBCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.02). For Rubicon Technology Inc the two are $3.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rubicon Technology Inc worth?
The market values Rubicon Technology Inc at about $52.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.55; our models calculate a fair value of $2.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RBCN?
Our models span a range for Rubicon Technology Inc: cautious scenario $2.02, base $2.02, optimistic $2.98 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RBCN?
The PEG ratio of Rubicon Technology Inc is 1.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rubicon Technology Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RBCN from its 52-week high?
Rubicon Technology Inc trades at $5.55, about 17% below its 52-week high of $6.70 and 110% above the low of $2.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rubicon Technology Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rubicon Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.55, calculated fair value $2.02 (−64%), Quality Score 35/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RBCN calculated?
We run Rubicon Technology Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Rubicon Technology Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $5.55. Our model-based fair value is $2.02, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rubicon Technology Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Rubicon Technology Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The market capitalisation of Rubicon Technology Inc is $52.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rubicon Technology Inc is 14.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Earnings per share at Rubicon Technology Inc are $−0.2300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The net margin of Rubicon Technology Inc is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rubicon Technology Inc is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rubicon Technology Inc is −5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
The operating margin of Rubicon Technology Inc is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Revenue at Rubicon Technology Inc is growing −20.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +128%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN)?
Earnings per share at Rubicon Technology Inc are growing +168% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) generate?
The free cash flow of Rubicon Technology Inc is −$11.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rubicon Technology Inc (RBCN) carry?
The net debt of Rubicon Technology Inc is $20.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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