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Redwire Corp (RDW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Redwire Corp stock $6.45, price $8.13, that is 20.7% below the price, quality 23 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US

RC Redwire Corp logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Redwire Corp

RDW · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 21% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +90% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +42.3 %/yr in USD)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $243.1M (6M)
Fair value $6.45 · Overvalued
Quality 23/100
Loss-making · -57.3% net margin (TTM) · excl. goodwill write-downs -52.4%
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$25.90 $1.68 Fair Value $6.45 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.68 – $25.90 · fair‑value band $4.84 – $8.06 · the $8.13 price screens above the $6.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments Space and Defense Tech.

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The company offers sensors and avionics systems, including star trackers and sun sensors, which are critical for accurate navigation and control of spacecraft; camera systems; infrared, space situational awareness, and position timing and navigation payloads; It also provides software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of high-fidelity, interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based environment.

In addition, the company offers microgravity payloads, radio frequency systems, antennas, spacecraft platforms and missions, and in-space manufacturing and biotech facilities, as well as field-proven uncrewed airborne system (UAS) technology.

Further, it provides combat-proven autonomous systems, optical sensors, advanced optics, resilient energy solutions, and radio frequency payloads, as well as provides intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities for customers including the U.S. Department of War, U.S. Federal Civilian Agencies and allied governments across multiple domains.

Redwire Corporation was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

Stock analysis

Redwire Corp (RDW) currently trades at $8.13, while our estimate is $6.45, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $4.84 (bear) to $8.06 (bull), the price of $8.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Redwire Corp reported revenue of $335M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +24.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$227M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B Small · P/S ratio 4.53 · EPS (TTM) $−1.43 · Net margin −57.3% · Return on equity −18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −18.9% · Revenue (TTM) $426M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −21%, RDW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $4.84 Fair Value $6.45 Bull $8.06
Price $8.13 · Downside -20.7%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 2
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 69
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 30
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 25
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 37
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $243.1M and none bought.

  • SaleMichael Robert GreeneDirector, 10% owner3× since Jan 6, 2026: 18,039,084 shares, avg. $13.28$239.6MSep 23, 2026
  • SaleAEROEQUITY GP, LLCDirector, 10% owner4× since Jan 9, 2026: 12,428,844 shares, avg. $12.09$150.2MJun 11, 2026
  • SaleAE RED HOLDINGS, LLCDirector2× since Jan 13, 2026: 35,685,076 shares, avg. $10.71$382.1MApr 22, 2026
  • SaleDavid H. RoweDirector, 10% owner2× since Apr 10, 2026: 4,115,670 shares, avg. $10.09$41.5MApr 21, 2026
  • SaleEdge Autonomy Ultimate Holdings, LPDirector, 10% owner3× since Jan 7, 2026: 8,069,201 shares, avg. $10.49$84.6MApr 17, 2026
  • SaleAE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS FUND II-B, LPDirector, 10% owner3× since Jan 28, 2026: 12,111,356 shares, avg. $12.21$147.9MApr 15, 2026
  • SaleAE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS FUND II, LPDirector, 10% owner950,144 shares at $9.71$9.2MApr 9, 2026
  • SaleAE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS FUND II-A, LPDirector, 10% owner4× since Mar 13, 2026: 11,214,117 shares, avg. $9.32$104.5MMar 25, 2026
  • BuyChris EdmundsChief Accounting Officer5,500 shares at $5.46$30,030Nov 14, 2025
  • BuyAaron Michael FutchEVP, GC and Secretary2× since Nov 11, 2025: 22,509 shares, avg. $5.57$125,337Nov 14, 2025

Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.

Plus 20 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.1% (2020) → −68.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

RDW screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare Redwire Corp with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 260 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −20.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −15.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −57.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −18.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 89.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 4.21× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 63
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 18

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $166.47 $181.25 +9% vs RDW
TransDigm Group TDG $1,226 $1,317 +7% vs RDW
General Dynamics Corporation GD $367.44 $274.19 −25% vs RDW
Thales S.A HO €232.70 €170.99 −27% vs RDW
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $603.12 $439.21 −27% vs RDW
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $548.61 $382.98 −30% vs RDW
Airbus SE AIR €208.25 €112.14 −46% vs RDW
RTX Corporation RTX $200.27 $88.19 −56% vs RDW
General Electric Company GE $337.91 $92.26 −73% vs RDW
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $219.05 $52.65 −76% vs RDW

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Redwire Corp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Redwire Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RDW

Frequently asked questions

Is Redwire Corp (RDW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $6.45 versus a price of $8.13, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RDW?
Our estimate for Redwire Corp is $6.45 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.13.
What is the quality score of RDW?
Redwire Corp has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Redwire Corp (RDW)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $6.45 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $4.84, optimistic scenario $8.06. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Redwire Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $6.45, about 21% lower versus a price of $8.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.84, optimistic scenario $8.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
Redwire Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $426M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Redwire Corp it is $6.45 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $8.13.
Is Redwire Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, RDW trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.13, fair value $6.45, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RDW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.45). For Redwire Corp the two are $1.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Redwire Corp worth?
The market values Redwire Corp at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $8.13; our models calculate a fair value of $6.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RDW?
Our models span a range for Redwire Corp: cautious scenario $4.84, base $6.45, optimistic $8.06 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $8.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Redwire Corp (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −18.2%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RDW from its 52-week high?
Redwire Corp trades at $8.13, about 69% below its 52-week high of $25.90 and 61% above the low of $5.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Redwire Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Redwire Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $8.13, calculated fair value $6.45 (−21%), Quality Score 23/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Redwire Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $8.13. Our estimate is $6.45, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Redwire Corp right now?
Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Redwire Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
The market capitalisation of Redwire Corp is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Redwire Corp is 4.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
Earnings per share at Redwire Corp are $−1.43. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
The net margin of Redwire Corp is −57.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Redwire Corp is −18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Redwire Corp is −23.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Redwire Corp (RDW)?
The operating margin of Redwire Corp is −18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Redwire Corp (RDW)?
Revenue at Redwire Corp is growing +89.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Redwire Corp (RDW) generate?
The free cash flow of Redwire Corp is −$191M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Redwire Corp (RDW) carry?
The net debt of Redwire Corp is $136M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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