Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Stella-Jones Inc. stock C$81.53, price C$66.99, upside +21.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.25 – C$98.91 · fair‑value band C$53.92 – C$105.99 · the C$66.99 price screens below the C$81.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Stella-Jones Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells industrial pressure-treated wood products in Canada and the United States. It operates through two segments, Pressure-Treated Wood; and Logs and Lumber.
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The company offers wood utility poles, railway ties, residential lumber; and industrial products, such as timbers for railway bridges, crossings and construction, marine and foundation pilings, and coal tar-based products. It also sells logs, as well as excess lumber to local home-building markets.
In addition, the company offers treated wood poles and crossarms, steel lattice towers, and steel transmission poles to electrical utilities companies; treated wood railway ties and timber for short line and commercial railroad operators; and manufactures and distributes treated residential lumber and accessories to retailers for outdoor applications.
Stella-Jones Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.
Stock analysis
Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) currently trades at C$66.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$81.53, implying the stock looks roughly 17.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$149.79 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$66.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$16.72, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$53.92 (bear) to C$105.99 (bull), the price of C$66.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Stella-Jones Inc. reported revenue of C$3.5B in FY2025 versus C$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$337M in FY2025, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$3.7B (≈ $2.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) C$4.72 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 22%, SJ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$53.92Fair Value C$81.53BullC$105.99
Price C$66.99 · Upside +21.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$2.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.3% vs 11.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.8% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Stella-Jones draws strength from record demand and new capacity in utility poles for infrastructure, yet its margins remain exposed to network optimization costs and softer residential volumes in a cyclical lumber sector.
Main risk: Softer residential demand combined with ongoing network optimization could continue to pressure margins in the non-infrastructure segments of its wood products business.
Stella-Jones is adding a new manufacturing site in North Carolina to produce more utility poles amid record demand. This builds on strength in its core infrastructure segment even as margins have faced pressure from network optimization and softer residential demand. Our models see it as undervalued, but will the added capacity drive enough earnings growth to offset those headwinds?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+21.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Stella-Jones Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SJ
Frequently asked questions
Is Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$81.53 versus a price of C$66.99, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SJ?
Our model-based fair value for Stella-Jones Inc. is C$81.53 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$66.99.
What is the quality score of SJ?
Stella-Jones Inc. has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$81.53 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$53.92, optimistic scenario C$105.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Stella-Jones Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$81.53, about +22% upside versus a price of C$66.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$53.92, optimistic scenario C$105.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Stella-Jones Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$3.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Stella-Jones Inc. pay a dividend?
Stella-Jones Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Stella-Jones Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SJ use?
Our models discount Stella-Jones Inc. at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Stella-Jones Inc. that is -4.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Stella-Jones Inc. grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies -4.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Stella-Jones Inc. (-4.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.40 %: that much free cash flow Stella-Jones Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Stella-Jones Inc. it is C$81.53 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of C$66.99. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Stella-Jones Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, SJ trades below its calculated fair value: price C$66.99, fair value C$81.53, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$66.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$81.53). For Stella-Jones Inc. the two are C$14.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Stella-Jones Inc. worth?
The market values Stella-Jones Inc. at about C$3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is C$66.99; our models calculate a fair value of C$81.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SJ?
Our models span a range for Stella-Jones Inc.: cautious scenario C$53.92, base C$81.53, optimistic C$105.99 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price C$66.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SJ?
Stella-Jones Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$81.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.7 (reported for FY2025: 10.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 14.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.8, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SJ?
The PEG ratio of Stella-Jones Inc. is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Stella-Jones Inc. (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SJ from its 52-week high?
Stella-Jones Inc. trades at C$66.99, about 32% below its 52-week high of C$98.91 and 4% above the low of C$64.26 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$81.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Stella-Jones Inc.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Zhongfu Straits (Pingtan) Development Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Stella-Jones Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price C$66.99, calculated fair value C$81.53 (+22%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SJ calculated?
We run Stella-Jones Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$81.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Stella-Jones Inc. currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was C$66.99. Our model-based fair value is C$81.53, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Stella-Jones Inc. right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (C$53.92 to C$105.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) come from?
Earnings per share at Stella-Jones Inc. grew +13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Stella-Jones Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The market capitalisation of Stella-Jones Inc. is C$3.7B (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Stella-Jones Inc. is 1.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Earnings per share at Stella-Jones Inc. are C$4.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The dividend yield of Stella-Jones Inc. is 1.9% (payout 29.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The net margin of Stella-Jones Inc. is 7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Stella-Jones Inc. is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Stella-Jones Inc. is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
The operating margin of Stella-Jones Inc. is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Revenue at Stella-Jones Inc. is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ)?
Earnings per share at Stella-Jones Inc. are growing −41.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ) carry?
The net debt of Stella-Jones Inc. is C$1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026