South Bow Corporation (SOBO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of South Bow Corporation stock $13.52, price $31.08, that is 56.5% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range $19.50 – $38.67 · fair‑value band $9.34 – $15.18 · the $31.08 price screens above the $13.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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South Bow Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company. It operates through three segments: Keystone Pipeline System, Marketing, and Intra-Alberta & Other.
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The Keystone Pipeline System segment consists of the company's main liquids pipeline network, which transports crude oil from Hardisty, Alberta, to key U.S. markets including Wood River, Patoka, Illinois, Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast.
The Marketing segment provides crude oil marketing services, including transportation, storage, and logistics, and engages in physical crude oil trading and hedging activities.
The Intra-Alberta & Other segment comprises pipelines such as the Grand Rapids Pipeline and White Spruce Pipeline, offering crude oil transportation from Alberta's oil sands to refining and market regions, and includes corporate and financing activities.
The company also operates 4,900 kilometres of crude oil pipeline infrastructure connecting Alberta crude oil supplies to the U.S. refining markets in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. In addition, the company offers ancillary services, including storage at terminals.
The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
South Bow Corporation (SOBO) currently trades at $31.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.52, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $17.31 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the $31.08 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.15, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.34 (bear) to $15.18 (bull), the price of $31.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
South Bow Corporation reported revenue of C$1.6B in FY2025 versus C$2.7B in FY2023, a compound −22.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$441M in FY2025, compounding −13.3%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) $2.23 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 22.8% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (3-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −56%, SOBO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.34Fair Value $13.52Bull$15.18
Price $31.08 · Downside -56.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1966 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.0% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (65 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Long-term commitments and strong Keystone throughput underpin steady fee-based cash flows from the existing network, yet high leverage and thin evidence of durable advantage remain key limitations.
Main risk: Extended delays in the complex permitting process for the Prairie Connector project would hit the mid-2027 investment decision and limit expansion of fee-based revenues.
South Bow secured long-term commitments for its Prairie Connector project and raised 2026 cash flow guidance on strong Keystone throughput. Yet the expansion still hinges on navigating a complex permitting process ahead of a mid-2027 investment decision. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will steady fee-based revenues from the existing network cover the dividend and debt reduction if new pipeline builds face extended delays?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.6% · Above median
Return on assets3.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)22.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)33.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.9× · Pricier than median
P/B2.40× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.18× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)71· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is South Bow Corporation (SOBO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.52 versus a price of $31.08, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SOBO?
Our model-based fair value for South Bow Corporation is $13.52 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.08.
What is the quality score of SOBO?
South Bow Corporation has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.52 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.34, optimistic scenario $15.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the South Bow Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.52, about 56% lower versus a price of $31.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.34, optimistic scenario $15.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
South Bow Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does South Bow Corporation pay a dividend?
South Bow Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 6.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of South Bow Corporation (SOBO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
South Bow Corporation pays a dividend of $2.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 31, 2026. The payout ratio is 94.4% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 89.7%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.31 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, South Bow Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew -22.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SOBO use?
Our models discount South Bow Corporation at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For South Bow Corporation that is +10.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has South Bow Corporation (SOBO) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at South Bow Corporation grew -22.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of South Bow Corporation (SOBO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into South Bow Corporation (+10.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.45 %: that much free cash flow South Bow Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For South Bow Corporation it is $13.52 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $31.08. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is South Bow Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SOBO trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.08, fair value $13.52, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOBO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.52). For South Bow Corporation the two are $17.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is South Bow Corporation worth?
The market values South Bow Corporation at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $31.08; our models calculate a fair value of $13.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOBO?
Our models span a range for South Bow Corporation: cautious scenario $9.34, base $13.52, optimistic $15.18 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $31.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SOBO?
South Bow Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.52 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 22.3 (reported for FY2025: 21.2). Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
Balance-sheet figures for South Bow Corporation (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 2.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOBO from its 52-week high?
South Bow Corporation trades at $31.08, about 20% below its 52-week high of $38.67 and 26% above the low of $24.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to South Bow Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is South Bow Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $31.08, calculated fair value $13.52 (−56%), Quality Score 50/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOBO calculated?
We run South Bow Corporation through 19 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. South Bow Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $31.08. Our model-based fair value is $13.52, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with South Bow Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of South Bow Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The market capitalisation of South Bow Corporation is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of South Bow Corporation is 3.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
Earnings per share at South Bow Corporation are $2.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The dividend yield of South Bow Corporation is 6.4% (payout 94.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 89.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The net margin of South Bow Corporation is 22.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of South Bow Corporation is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of South Bow Corporation is 5.1% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
The operating margin of South Bow Corporation is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
Revenue at South Bow Corporation is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at South Bow Corporation (SOBO)?
Earnings per share at South Bow Corporation are growing +5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does South Bow Corporation (SOBO) carry?
The net debt of South Bow Corporation is $5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026