South Bow Corporation (SOBO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.8B
South Bow Corporation
SOBO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (22 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $19.50 – $38.67 · fair‑value band $17.50 – $29.17 · the $35.62 price screens above the $19.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
South Bow Corporation (SOBO) currently trades at $35.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.42, implying the stock looks roughly 45.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, South Bow Corporation generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of 21.3%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.50 (bear case) to $29.17 (bull case); at $35.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -45%, SOBO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($23.34) versus DCF Models ($5.23). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
South Bow Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company. It operates through three segments: Keystone Pipeline System, Marketing, and Intra-Alberta & Other. The Keystone Pipeline System segment consists of the company's main liquids pipeline network, which transports crude oil from Hardisty, Alberta, to key U.S.
Full company description
South Bow Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company. It operates through three segments: Keystone Pipeline System, Marketing, and Intra-Alberta & Other. The Keystone Pipeline System segment consists of the company's main liquids pipeline network, which transports crude oil from Hardisty, Alberta, to key U.S. markets including Wood River, Patoka, Illinois, Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast. The Marketing segment provides crude oil marketing services, including transportation, storage, and logistics, and engages in physical crude oil trading and hedging activities. The Intra-Alberta & Other segment comprises pipelines such as the Grand Rapids Pipeline and White Spruce Pipeline, offering crude oil transportation from Alberta's oil sands to refining and market regions, and includes corporate and financing activities. The company also operates 4,900 kilometres of crude oil pipeline infrastructure connecting Alberta crude oil supplies to the U.S. refining markets in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. In addition, the company offers ancillary services, including storage at terminals. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
South Bow Corporation reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2023, a compound −22.1%/yr. Reported net income was $441M in FY2025, compounding −13.3%/yr from FY2023.
SOBO screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- South Bow Corporation (SOBO) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
- Keystone pipeline owner South Bow to pay $26.8M penalty over 2022 Kansas spill
- South Bow Announces Timing of Second-quarter 2026 Results and Conference Call and Webcast
- Raymond James Initiates Coverage of South Bow (SOBO) with Outperform Rating
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 87 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $56.46 | $47.20 | -16% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $73.38 | $12.03 | -84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $38.31 | $24.74 | -35% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | C$97.79 | C$42.00 | -57% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $32.54 | $11.12 | -66% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $19.91 | $17.69 | -11% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $93.52 | $64.05 | -32% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $273.35 | $79.61 | -71% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.17 | $37.05 | -35% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $255.83 | $211.18 | -17% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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