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Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sable Offshore Corp. stock $1.59, price $1.93, that is 17.6% below the price, quality 19 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy US

SO Sable Offshore Corp. logo Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Sable Offshore Corp.

SOC · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 18% below what the stock costs today.

Fair value $1.59 · Overvalued (−17.6%)
Quality 19/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Downbeat coverage
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$33.02 $1.82 Fair Value $1.59 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.82 – $33.02 · fair‑value band $1.18 – $2.36 · the $1.93 price screens above the $1.59 fair value. As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Sable Offshore Corp. operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company operates through three platforms located in federal waters offshore California.

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It also owns and operates 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres, as well as subsea pipelines that transports crude oil, natural gas, and produced water from the platforms to the onshore processing facilities.

The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) currently trades at $1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.59, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.18 (bear) to $2.36 (bull), the price of $1.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Sable Offshore Corp. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$410M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $376M Small · P/S ratio 4.34 · EPS (TTM) $−3.26 · Return on equity −103% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −48.8% · Revenue (TTM) $138M · Free cash flow −$769M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 90% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −18%, SOC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.18 Fair Value $1.59 Bull $2.36
Price $1.93 · Downside -17.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $1.39 $1.87 $2.78 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.39 $1.87 $2.78 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 19/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 24
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 18
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 5
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleJames C FloresChairman & CEO, Director, 10% owner140,089 shares at $13.44$1.9MApr 29, 2026
  • SaleGregory D. PatrinelyEVP, CFO2× since Mar 31, 2026: 359,135 shares, avg. $15.97$5.7MApr 29, 2026
  • SaleAnthony DuennerOfficer2× since Mar 31, 2026: 359,136 shares, avg. $15.97$5.7MApr 29, 2026
  • SaleJames Caldwell FloresPresident, COO2× since Mar 31, 2026: 359,135 shares, avg. $15.97$5.7MApr 29, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SOC screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with Noble Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −23.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −48.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.70× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.72× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)10 · sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 3
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN $9.92 $21.65 +118% vs SOC
Noble Corporation NE $40.87 $45.13 +10% vs SOC
Transocean Ltd RIG $5.24 $4.00 −24% vs SOC
Valaris Limited VAL $79.77 $58.75 −26% vs SOC
Odfjell Drilling Ltd ODL kr 99.50 kr 60.36 −39% vs SOC
Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP $35.22 $21.09 −40% vs SOC
Nabors Industries Ltd NBR $73.20 $41.47 −43% vs SOC
Precision Drilling Corporation PDS $91.79 $39.28 −57% vs SOC
Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 ¥2.09 ¥0.5200 −75% vs SOC
Seadrill Limited SDRL $42.20 $10.34 −76% vs SOC

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Sable Offshore Corp.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sable Offshore Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SOC

Frequently asked questions

Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.59 versus a price of $1.93, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SOC?
Our model-based fair value for Sable Offshore Corp. is $1.59 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.93.
What is the quality score of SOC?
Sable Offshore Corp. has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.59 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.18, optimistic scenario $2.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sable Offshore Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.59, about 18% lower versus a price of $1.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.18, optimistic scenario $2.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Sable Offshore Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $138M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sable Offshore Corp. it is $1.59 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $1.93. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Sable Offshore Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SOC trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.93, fair value $1.59, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.59). For Sable Offshore Corp. the two are $0.3405 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sable Offshore Corp. worth?
The market values Sable Offshore Corp. at about $376M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $1.93; our models calculate a fair value of $1.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOC?
Our models span a range for Sable Offshore Corp.: cautious scenario $1.18, base $1.59, optimistic $2.36 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $1.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sable Offshore Corp. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −103.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOC from its 52-week high?
Sable Offshore Corp. trades at $1.93, about 90% below its 52-week high of $18.45 and 6% above the low of $1.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sable Offshore Corp.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Valaris Limited, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sable Offshore Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $1.93, calculated fair value $1.59 (−18%), Quality Score 19/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOC calculated?
We run Sable Offshore Corp. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.59 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Sable Offshore Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.93. Our model-based fair value is $1.59, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sable Offshore Corp. right now?
Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($1.18 to $2.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Sable Offshore Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The market capitalisation of Sable Offshore Corp. is $376M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sable Offshore Corp. is 4.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
Earnings per share at Sable Offshore Corp. are $−3.26. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sable Offshore Corp. is −103% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sable Offshore Corp. is −12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)?
The operating margin of Sable Offshore Corp. is −48.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) generate?
The free cash flow of Sable Offshore Corp. is −$769M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) hold?
Sable Offshore Corp. holds more cash than debt, $97.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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