Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. stock C$24.91, price C$8.61, upside +189.3%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of petroleum and natural gas resource deposits in Canada.
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The company is involved in the exploration and development of light oil assets in the Oxbow area of Southeast Saskatchewan; Viking light oil assets in West-Central Saskatchewan; and Cardium light oil assets in Central Alberta.
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL) currently trades at C$8.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$24.91, implying the stock looks roughly 65% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$38.61 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$8.61 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$3.56, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$13.19 (bear) to C$46.05 (bull), the price of C$8.61 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. reported revenue of C$882M in FY2025 versus C$98.4M in FY2021, a compound +73.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$168M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$1.6B (≈ $1.2B) Small · P/S ratio 1.58 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.0500 · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity −0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.9% · Revenue (TTM) C$837M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 283% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 189%, SOIL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$13.19Fair Value C$24.91BullC$46.05
Price C$8.61 · Upside +189.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+161.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+191.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+63.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+63.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 23%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 286 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+189.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets7.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)−0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.74× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.97× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SOIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$24.91 versus a price of C$8.61, about +189% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SOIL?
Our model-based fair value for Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is C$24.91 (as of Nov 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$8.61.
What is the quality score of SOIL?
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$24.91 (as of Nov 14, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$13.19, optimistic scenario C$46.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$24.91, about +189% upside versus a price of C$8.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$13.19, optimistic scenario C$46.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$837M (latest available figure, as of Nov 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +161.9 % per year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SOIL use?
Our models discount Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. that is -1.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. grew +161.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -1.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (-1.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.14 %: that much free cash flow Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. it is C$24.91 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026), against a price of C$8.61. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, SOIL trades below its calculated fair value: price C$8.61, fair value C$24.91, a gap of about +189% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$8.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$24.91). For Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. the two are C$16.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. worth?
The market values Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. at about C$1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 14, 2026). Per share that is C$8.61; our models calculate a fair value of C$24.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOIL?
Our models span a range for Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.: cautious scenario C$13.19, base C$24.91, optimistic C$46.05 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026, price C$8.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (as of Nov 14, 2026): return on equity −0.7%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOIL from its 52-week high?
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. trades at C$8.61, about 12% below its 52-week high of C$9.77 and 283% above the low of C$2.25 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$24.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Diamondback Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 14, 2026: price C$8.61, calculated fair value C$24.91 (+189%), Quality Score 41/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOIL calculated?
We run Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$24.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. currently trades 65% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was C$8.61. Our model-based fair value is C$24.91, about +189% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$13.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (C$13.19 to C$46.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The market capitalisation of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is C$1.6B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is 1.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Earnings per share at Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. are C$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The net margin of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is −0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
The operating margin of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Revenue at Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL)?
Earnings per share at Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. are growing +23.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (SOIL) carry?
The net debt of Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is C$827M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 14, 2026