Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sphere Entertainment Co. stock $52.52, price $120, that is 56.2% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.62 – $176.38 · fair‑value band $36.21 – $68.83 · the $120.02 price screens above the $52.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Sphere Entertainment Co. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Sphere Entertainment Co. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Sphere Entertainment Co. operates as a live entertainment and media company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Sphere and MSG Networks. The Sphere segment offers entertainment medium powered by technologies to create multi-sensory experiences.
Show moreShow less
The MSG Networks segment provides regional sports and entertainment networks; direct-to-consumer and authenticated streaming products, as well as sports content, including live local games and other programming.
The company was formerly known as Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. and changed its name to Sphere Entertainment Co. in April 2023. Sphere Entertainment Co. was founded in 2006 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) currently trades at $120.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.52, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $90.95 per share, and 2 of the 21 models we run sit above the $120.02 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $6.96, and 19 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $36.21 (bear) to $68.83 (bull), the price of $120.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sphere Entertainment Co. reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $610M in FY2022, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $33.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $5.4B Mid · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) $−4.77 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity −5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −22.2% · Revenue (TTM) $1.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −56%, SPHR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$36.21Fair Value $52.52Bull$68.83
Price $120.02 · Downside -56.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$66.82$97.78$137.6981
Growth DCF$67.31$94.32$127.0779
Owner Earnings$118.24$170.36$237.5677
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$66.82$97.78$137.6981
Owner Earnings$118.24$170.36$237.5677
5Y Revenue Exit$55.44$86.79$125.8172
5Y EBITDA Exit$52.47$81.29$113.8875
5Y P/E Exit$32.40$44.11$55.5572
10Y Revenue Exit$58.01$85.63$121.0367
10Y EBITDA Exit$57.76$82.23$112.9469
10Y P/E Exit$46.32$59.21$73.4065
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$7.72$23.05$30.5365
Lynch FV$4.87$6.96$9.0561
PEG = 1.0$4.87$6.96$9.0557
Multiples
P/E Multiple$18.74$24.98$31.2363
P/S Multiple$14.48$19.30$24.1358
P/B Multiple$166.57$222.09$277.6255
EV/EBITDA$42.60$61.79$80.9867
EV/Revenue$44.12$69.44$94.7753
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$31.73$42.52$63.4654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$67.31$94.32$127.0779
Rev-Margin DCF$55.44$87.57$124.3472
Economic Profit
Residual Income$42.40$44.43$48.8276
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$15.20$21.72$28.2467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−21.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → −12%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~8Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows strength through strong ticket sales for its Las Vegas Wizard of Oz production yet faces weak competitive advantages and persistent net losses with negative free cash flow.
Main risk: Cooling demand for the flagship Wizard of Oz production risks hitting revenue from the Las Vegas venue and the broader venue model at scale.
Sphere keeps layering new 4D effects onto The Wizard of Oz at its Las Vegas venue and has now sold over four million tickets for more than half a billion dollars. At the same time analysts point to cooling demand for the show while the company works to open additional Spheres elsewhere. Will the flagship production hold its audience long enough for the broader venue model to prove itself at scale?
Compare Sphere Entertainment Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 221 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−56.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−9.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−22.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.43× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.97× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)28.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA22.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 5
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sphere Entertainment Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPHR
Frequently asked questions
Is Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $52.52 versus a price of $120.02, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPHR?
Our model-based fair value for Sphere Entertainment Co. is $52.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $120.02.
What is the quality score of SPHR?
Sphere Entertainment Co. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $52.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $36.21, optimistic scenario $68.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sphere Entertainment Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $52.52, about 56% lower versus a price of $120.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $36.21, optimistic scenario $68.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Sphere Entertainment Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sphere Entertainment Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +21.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPHR use?
Our models discount Sphere Entertainment Co. at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sphere Entertainment Co. that is +21.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sphere Entertainment Co. grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sphere Entertainment Co. (+21.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.51 %: that much free cash flow Sphere Entertainment Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sphere Entertainment Co. it is $52.52 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $120.02. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sphere Entertainment Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SPHR trades above its calculated fair value: price $120.02, fair value $52.52, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPHR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($120.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($52.52). For Sphere Entertainment Co. the two are $67.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sphere Entertainment Co. worth?
The market values Sphere Entertainment Co. at about $5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $120.02; our models calculate a fair value of $52.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPHR?
Our models span a range for Sphere Entertainment Co.: cautious scenario $36.21, base $52.52, optimistic $68.83 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $120.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sphere Entertainment Co. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −5.8%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPHR from its 52-week high?
Sphere Entertainment Co. trades at $120.02, about 32% below its 52-week high of $176.38 and 64% above the low of $73.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $52.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sphere Entertainment Co.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, TKO Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sphere Entertainment Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $120.02, calculated fair value $52.52 (−56%), Quality Score 52/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPHR calculated?
We run Sphere Entertainment Co. through 21 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $52.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Sphere Entertainment Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $120.02. Our model-based fair value is $52.52, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sphere Entertainment Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($68.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($36.21 to $68.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sphere Entertainment Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The market capitalisation of Sphere Entertainment Co. is $5.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sphere Entertainment Co. is 3.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Earnings per share at Sphere Entertainment Co. are $−4.77. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The net margin of Sphere Entertainment Co. is 2.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sphere Entertainment Co. is −5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sphere Entertainment Co. is −4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
The operating margin of Sphere Entertainment Co. is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Revenue at Sphere Entertainment Co. is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) carry?
The net debt of Sphere Entertainment Co. is $440M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Sphere Entertainment Co. in the live analysis
One click puts Sphere Entertainment Co. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026