Sphere Entertainment Co (SPHR) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $5.0B
Sphere Entertainment Co
SPHR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +5.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.62 – $173.03 · fair‑value band $16.20 – $27.00 · the $159.54 price screens above the $21.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Sphere Entertainment Co (SPHR) currently trades at $159.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.60, implying the stock looks roughly 86.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Sphere Entertainment Co generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 8.6%. Revenue grew 37.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at $440M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.20 (bear case) to $27.00 (bull case); at $159.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 321% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -86%, SPHR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($87.77) versus Earnings-Based ($7.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sphere Entertainment Co. operates as a live entertainment and media company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Sphere and MSG Networks. The Sphere segment offers entertainment medium powered by technologies to create multi-sensory experiences.
Full company description
Sphere Entertainment Co. operates as a live entertainment and media company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Sphere and MSG Networks. The Sphere segment offers entertainment medium powered by technologies to create multi-sensory experiences. The MSG Networks segment provides regional sports and entertainment networks; direct-to-consumer and authenticated streaming products, as well as sports content, including live local games and other programming. The company was formerly known as Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. and changed its name to Sphere Entertainment Co. in April 2023. Sphere Entertainment Co. was founded in 2006 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Sphere Entertainment Co reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $610M in FY2022, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $33.4M in FY2026.
SPHR screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sphere outlines National Harbor third-party financing plans with $200M incentives as venue targets opening in under 4 years
- Sphere Entertainment Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
- Immersive Experience Bolsters Sphere Entertainment’s (SPHR) Strong Performance
- Zacks Industry Outlook Disney, Sphere, Lionsgate, Align and Reservoir
Peer Group
Entertainment · 267 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix, Inc ZNFL | C$6.77 | C$2.96 | -56% |
| The Walt Disney Company DIS | $96.30 | $89.55 | -7% |
| Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD | $26.87 | $9.13 | -66% |
| Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV | $178.44 | $46.89 | -74% |
| Universal Music Group UMG | €18.91 | €14.78 | -22% |
| TKO Group TKO | $184.40 | $22.16 | -88% |
| Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO | 55.00 MXN | 60.49 MXN | +10% |
| Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 | ¥11.77 | ¥10.97 | -7% |
| PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN | 456.00 IDR | 221.09 IDR | -52% |
| Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS | ₹298.25 | ₹63.45 | -79% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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