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Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. stock $33.41, price $38.69, that is 13.6% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

TC Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. logo Some data Nov 5, 2026

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.

TCBX · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 14% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +34.4 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 31.0% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +26% vs. a year ago.
Quality 55/100
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $40,340 (6M) · sold $100,725
Some data
Fair value $33.41 · Overvalued (−13.6%)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$46.13 $12.94 Fair Value $33.41 Nov 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.94 – $46.13 · fair‑value band $28.80 – $45.89 · the $38.69 price screens above the $33.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Third Coast Bank that provides various commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses and professionals in Texas, the United States.

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The company's deposit products include checking, money market, savings, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.

Its loan portfolio consists of commercial and residential real estate loans; construction, development and other loans; commercial and industrial loans; and farmland, consumer, and agricultural loans, as well as lease financing and bond anticipation notes, as well as financial products and services.

The company also provides retail and commercial online banking platforms, mobile banking apps, treasury management solutions, merchant card services, and customer digital solutions, as well as debit and credit cards.

In addition, it offers state and municipal and mortgage-backed securities, agency collateralized mortgage obligations, the U.S. treasury bonds, and corporate bonds. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Humble, Texas.

Stock analysis

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) currently trades at $38.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.41, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $38.89 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $38.69 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.63, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $28.80 (bear) to $45.89 (bull), the price of $38.69 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. reported revenue of $367M in FY2025 versus $103M in FY2021, a compound +37.3%/yr. Reported net income was $66.3M in FY2025, compounding +55.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $633M Small · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) $3.92 · Net margin 31.0% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 37.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −14%, TCBX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $28.80 Fair Value $33.41 Bull $45.89
Price $38.69 · Downside -13.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.35 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $28.80 $33.41 $45.89 71
P/E Multiple $38.84 $51.79 $64.74 63
P/B Multiple $19.48 $25.98 $32.47 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $38.84 $51.79 $64.74 63
P/B Multiple $19.48 $25.98 $32.47 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.40 $20.63 $30.79 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $28.80 $33.41 $45.89 71

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 32
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 58
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 11
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 60
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 39
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 32
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 87
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $40,340, on Oct 26, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $100,725.

  • BuyWilliam BobboraOfficer2× since Feb 24, 2026: 2,200 shares, avg. $39.95$87,884Oct 26, 2026
  • SaleTroy Andrew GlanderDirector2,500 shares at $40.29$100,725Jun 15, 2026
  • SaleW. Donald BrunsonDirector1,500 shares at $38.55$57,821Dec 1, 2025
  • BuyLiz EberOfficer135 shares at $36.48$4,925Nov 19, 2025
  • SaleWilliam BobboraOfficer245 shares at $36.30$8,894Nov 17, 2025

Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+25.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 23%
2025 sits 105% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

TCBX screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (47 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −13.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 12.7% · Above median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 31.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 37.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 26.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.19× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.61× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 13.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)15 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)51 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs TCBX
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs TCBX
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs TCBX
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs TCBX
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs TCBX
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs TCBX
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs TCBX
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs TCBX
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs TCBX
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs TCBX

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCBX

Frequently asked questions

Is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.41 versus a price of $38.69, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCBX?
Our model-based fair value for Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is $33.41 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.69.
What is the quality score of TCBX?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.41 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.80, optimistic scenario $45.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.41, about 14% lower versus a price of $38.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.80, optimistic scenario $45.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $243M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. pay a dividend?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. it is $33.41 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $38.69. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TCBX trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.69, fair value $33.41, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.41). For Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. the two are $5.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. worth?
The market values Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. at about $633M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $38.69; our models calculate a fair value of $33.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCBX?
Our models span a range for Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.: cautious scenario $28.80, base $33.41, optimistic $45.89 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $38.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCBX?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCBX from its 52-week high?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. trades at $38.69, about 16% below its 52-week high of $46.13 and 7% above the low of $36.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $38.69, calculated fair value $33.41 (−14%), Quality Score 55/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCBX calculated?
We run Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $33.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $38.69. Our model-based fair value is $33.41, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
The market capitalisation of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is $633M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is 2.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Earnings per share at Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. are $3.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
The net margin of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is 31.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
The operating margin of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is 37.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Revenue at Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is growing +26.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)?
Earnings per share at Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. are growing −9.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) generate?
The free cash flow of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is $48.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) hold?
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $38.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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