Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA stock €8.60, price €13.14, that is 34.6% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €12.60 – €44.41 · fair‑value band €5.41 – €11.02 · the €13.14 price screens above the €8.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Tonnellerie Francois Freres in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Tonnellerie Francois Freres is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
TFF Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wine and spirits ageing in the United States, Europe, France, Asia, and internationally. It is involved in the forestry business, wine cooperage, stave milling, whisky and bourbon cooperage, cask making, and stainless-steel vat making.
Show moreShow less
The company also offers wood products for oenology. It serves the wine, bourbon, and whisky markets. The company was formerly known as Tonnellerie François Frères. TFF Group was founded in 1910 and is based in Saint-Romain-en-Viennois, France.
Stock analysis
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) currently trades at €13.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.60, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €33.33 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the €13.14 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €5.60, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.41 (bear) to €11.02 (bull), the price of €13.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA reported revenue of €313M in FY2026 versus €303M in FY2022, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was €9.2M in FY2026, compounding −28.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €298M Small · P/E ratio 32.9 · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) €0.4000 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −35%, TFF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€5.41Fair Value €8.60Bull€11.02
Price €13.14 · Downside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.9% vs −12.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−28.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TFF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.60 versus a price of €13.14, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TFF?
Our model-based fair value for Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is €8.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.14.
What is the quality score of TFF?
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.41, optimistic scenario €11.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.60, about 35% lower versus a price of €13.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.41, optimistic scenario €11.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €313M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA pay a dividend?
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.04% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA pays a dividend of €0.4 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. The payout ratio is 100% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.82 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA would have to grow free cash flow by -2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TFF use?
Our models discount Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA that is -2.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA grew +3.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (-2.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.85 %: that much free cash flow Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA it is €8.60 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €13.14. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TFF trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.14, fair value €8.60, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.60). For Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA the two are €4.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA worth?
The market values Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA at about €298M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €13.14; our models calculate a fair value of €8.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TFF?
Our models span a range for Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA: cautious scenario €5.41, base €8.60, optimistic €11.02 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €13.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TFF?
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €8.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 22.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TFF?
The PEG ratio of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 0.93 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TFF from its 52-week high?
Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA trades at €13.14, about 33% below its 52-week high of €19.70 and 4% above the low of €12.60 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €13.14, calculated fair value €8.60 (−35%), Quality Score 45/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TFF calculated?
We run Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €8.60 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €13.14. Our model-based fair value is €8.60, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€5.41 to €11.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA grew +0.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −3.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The market capitalisation of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is €298M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 1.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Earnings per share at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA are €0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The dividend yield of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 3.0% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The net margin of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
The operating margin of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Revenue at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is growing −28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF)?
Earnings per share at Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA are growing −32.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA (TFF) carry?
The net debt of Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA is €284M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA in the live analysis
One click puts Tonnellerie Francois Freres SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026