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Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tolu Minerals Ltd stock A$0.87, price A$1.10, that is 20.5% below the price, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN PG0000000656

TM Tolu Minerals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Tolu Minerals Ltd

TOK · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 21% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Fair value A$0.8700 · Overvalued
Quality 31/100
Weak Growth
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 9/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$1.65 A$0.4750 Fair Value A$0.8700 Nov 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

36‑month range A$0.4750 – A$1.65 · fair‑value band A$0.6500 – A$1.08 · the A$1.10 price screens above the A$0.8700 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Tolu Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Papua New Guinea. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits.

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It primarily holds interest in the Tolukuma Gold Mine project that covers an area of approximately 1,800 square kilometers located in the Goilala District of Central Province of Papua New Guinea. Tolu Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Kangaroo Point, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) currently trades at A$1.10, while our estimate is A$0.8700, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.6500 (bear) to A$1.08 (bull), the price of A$1.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Tolu Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$14.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$308M (≈ $212M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0600 · Return on equity −17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.0% (5-year average) · Revenue (TTM) A$407K · Revenue growth (YoY) −6.1% · Free cash flow −A$16.1M · Net cash A$44.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −21%, TOK screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.6500 Fair Value A$0.8700 Bull A$1.08
Price A$1.10 · Downside -20.5%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 99
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 23
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 13
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TOK screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 150 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Below median
Fair Value upside −20.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −11.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −6.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.67× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 56

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $9.36 $12.73 +36% vs TOK
Hecla Mining Company HL $14.29 $16.21 +13% vs TOK
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $32.15 $32.54 +1% vs TOK
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $27.08 $26.98 +0% vs TOK
International Gemological Institute Limited IGIL ₹426.80 ₹338.90 −21% vs TOK
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA $19.33 $15.34 −21% vs TOK
Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 ¥16.98 ¥13.23 −22% vs TOK
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$32.07 C$15.00 −53% vs TOK
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$40.87 C$15.63 −62% vs TOK
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN 3,730 IDR 881.70 IDR −76% vs TOK

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Tolu Minerals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tolu Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOK

Frequently asked questions

Is Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.8700 versus a price of A$1.10, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOK?
Our estimate for Tolu Minerals Ltd is A$0.8700 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.10.
What is the quality score of TOK?
Tolu Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.8700 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.6500, optimistic scenario A$1.08. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Tolu Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.8700, about 21% lower versus a price of A$1.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.6500, optimistic scenario A$1.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Tolu Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$407K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tolu Minerals Ltd it is A$0.8700 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$1.10.
Is Tolu Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, TOK trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.10, fair value A$0.8700, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8700). For Tolu Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.2250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tolu Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Tolu Minerals Ltd at about A$308M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$1.10; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOK?
Our models span a range for Tolu Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.6500, base A$0.8700, optimistic A$1.08 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$1.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tolu Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −17.1%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOK from its 52-week high?
Tolu Minerals Ltd trades at A$1.10, about 34% below its 52-week high of A$1.65 and 8% above the low of A$1.01 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tolu Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, China Gold International Resources Corp, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tolu Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$1.10, calculated fair value A$0.8700 (−21%), Quality Score 31/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Tolu Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was A$1.10. Our estimate is A$0.8700, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tolu Minerals Ltd right now?
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Tolu Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The market capitalisation of Tolu Minerals Ltd is A$308M (≈ $212M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Earnings per share at Tolu Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −23.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Revenue at Tolu Minerals Ltd is growing −6.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) generate?
The free cash flow of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −A$16.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) hold?
Tolu Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$44.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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