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Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tolu Minerals Ltd A$0.13, price A$1.34, upside -90.5%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN PG0000000656

TM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Tolu Minerals Ltd

TOK · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.1275 · Strongly overvalued (−90.5%)
!Quality 23/100
!Weak Growth
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/7)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.65 A$0.4750 Fair Value A$0.1275 Nov 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

34‑month range A$0.4750 – A$1.65 · fair‑value band A$0.0850 – A$0.1615 · the A$1.34 price screens above the A$0.1275 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tolu Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Papua New Guinea. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits.

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Tolu Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Papua New Guinea. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. It primarily holds interest in the Tolukuma Gold Mine project that covers an area of approximately 1,800 square kilometers located in the Goilala District of Central Province of Papua New Guinea. Tolu Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Kangaroo Point, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) currently trades at A$1.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1275, implying the stock looks roughly 951.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0850 (bear) to A$0.1615 (bull), the price of A$1.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Tolu Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$14.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$347M (≈ $244M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0600 · Return on equity −18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.0% · Operating margin −2,007% · Revenue (TTM) A$407K · Revenue growth (YoY) −6.1% · Free cash flow −A$16.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −90%, TOK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0850 Fair Value A$0.1275 Bull A$0.1615
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2000 A$0.2700 A$0.4100 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2000 A$0.2700 A$0.4100 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TOK screens 952% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 103 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Below median
Fair Value upside −90.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −10.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.12× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 83
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN 4,720 IDR 876.15 IDR −81%
Hecla Mining Company HL $18.19 $16.30 −10%
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $33.17 $28.79 −13%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $10.61 $14.99 +41%
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$40.80 C$44.88 +10%
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$41.59 C$15.84 −62%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $32.19 $32.48 +1%
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA $24.76 $6.07 −75%
PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA 525.00 IDR 73.59 IDR −86%
Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 ¥18.58 ¥2.01 −89%

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Tolu Minerals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1275 −952%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tolu Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOK

Frequently asked questions

Is Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1275 versus a price of A$1.34, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOK?
Our model-based fair value for Tolu Minerals Ltd is A$0.1275 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.34.
What is the quality score of TOK?
Tolu Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1275 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1615. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tolu Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1275, about −90% upside versus a price of A$1.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1615. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Tolu Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$407K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tolu Minerals Ltd it is A$0.1275 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$1.34. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tolu Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TOK trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.34, fair value A$0.1275, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1275). For Tolu Minerals Ltd the two are A$1.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tolu Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Tolu Minerals Ltd at about A$347M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$1.34; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1275 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOK?
Our models span a range for Tolu Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0850, base A$0.1275, optimistic A$0.1615 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$1.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tolu Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −18.7%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOK from its 52-week high?
Tolu Minerals Ltd trades at A$1.34, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$1.65 and 23% above the low of A$1.09 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1275 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tolu Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tolu Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$1.34, calculated fair value A$0.1275 (−90%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOK calculated?
We run Tolu Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1275, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tolu Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was A$1.34. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1275, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tolu Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1615). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0850 to A$0.1615) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tolu Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The market capitalisation of Tolu Minerals Ltd is A$347M (≈ $244M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Earnings per share at Tolu Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −23.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
The operating margin of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −2,007% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK)?
Revenue at Tolu Minerals Ltd is growing −6.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) generate?
The free cash flow of Tolu Minerals Ltd is −A$16.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tolu Minerals Ltd (TOK) hold?
Tolu Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$44.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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