Tolu Minerals Limited (TOK) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$327M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1615). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0850 to A$0.1615) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range A$0.4750 – A$1.65 · fair‑value band A$0.0850 – A$0.1615 · the A$1.24 price screens above the A$0.1275 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Tolu Minerals Limited (TOK) currently trades at A$1.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1275, implying the stock looks roughly 89.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$407K. Revenue declined 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -18.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$44.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0850 (bear case) to A$0.1615 (bull case); at A$1.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -90%, TOK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tolu Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Papua New Guinea. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits.
Full company description
Tolu Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Papua New Guinea. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. It primarily holds interest in the Tolukuma Gold Mine project that covers an area of approximately 1,800 square kilometers located in the Goilala District of Central Province of Papua New Guinea. Tolu Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Kangaroo Point, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tolu Minerals Limited reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$14.9M in FY2025.
TOK screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Fresnillo plc →
Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresnillo plc FRES | 579.75 MXN | 558.30 MXN | -4% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $14.52 | $8.15 | -44% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $29.82 | $29.96 | +0% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $10.67 | $19.38 | +82% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$24.78 | C$18.48 | -25% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$32.98 | C$21.86 | -34% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $28.10 | $16.03 | -43% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.01 | ¥13.23 | -37% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$26.10 | C$5.85 | -78% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥13.15 | ¥2.84 | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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