TPBI PCL (TPBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TPBI PCL stock THB 7.38, price THB 3.60, upside +105.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.21 THB – 4.55 THB · fair‑value band 5.53 THB – 9.22 THB · the 3.60 THB price screens below the 7.38 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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TPBI Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes plastic bags and plastic packaging and machines for plastic bags production products in Thailand, Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, New Zealand, and internationally.
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The company operates through seven segments: Manufacturing and Distribution of Plastic Packaging; Manufacturing and Distribution of Film; Manufacturing and Distribution of Flexible Packaging; Manufacturing and Distribution of Plastic Beads; Trading; Manufacturing and Distribution of Paper Packaging; and Other.
It offers paper packaging products, such as paper cups and bowls, flat and satchel, SOS paper bags, and paper bags with twisted and tape handle; paper packaging for beer and wine bottles; paper box for pizza; and plastic bags, which include mailing, garbage, drawstring, flap tie, reusable, zipper, food storage, security bag ICAO certified duty free, STEB, tax-free, money, and piping bags.
The company also provides multilayer blown films; flexibles packaging for frozen food, ready-to-eat food, and others; and digital printing.
In addition, it manufactures and distributes paints and coating products; provides services for molding, cutting, and film-blowing for plastic bags; manufactures and distributes machines for plastic bags production; and trades in paper and plastic packaging products, as well as biodegradable packaging products.
TPBI Public Company Limited was formerly known as Thai Plastic Bags Industries Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Nakhon Pathom, Thailand.
Stock analysis
TPBI PCL (TPBI) currently trades at 3.60 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.38 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 51% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 12.69 THB per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 3.60 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.77 THB, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 5.53 THB (bear) to 9.22 THB (bull), the price of 3.60 THB sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
TPBI PCL reported revenue of 4.9B THB in FY2025 versus 5.6B THB in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 181M THB in FY2025, compounding +60.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 1.5B THB (≈ $44.9M) Micro · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) 0.5400 THB · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 105%, TPBI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear5.53 THBFair Value 7.38 THBBull9.22 THB
Price 3.60 THB · Upside +105.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2658 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +18.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 11.9% / −8.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~9Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.25 per share, median 0.75 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−24.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −25.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+105.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TPBI PCL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TPBI
Frequently asked questions
Is TPBI PCL (TPBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.38 THB versus a price of 3.60 THB, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TPBI?
Our model-based fair value for TPBI PCL is 7.38 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.60 THB.
What is the quality score of TPBI?
TPBI PCL has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.38 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.53 THB, optimistic scenario 9.22 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TPBI PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.38 THB, about +105% upside versus a price of 3.60 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 5.53 THB, optimistic scenario 9.22 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
TPBI PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.7B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does TPBI PCL pay a dividend?
TPBI PCL currently shows a dividend yield of 6.39% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of TPBI PCL (TPBI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
TPBI PCL pays a dividend of 0.23 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.4%. The last ex-dividend date was May 5, 2026. The payout ratio is 42.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 5.10 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TPBI PCL would have to grow free cash flow by -24.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPBI use?
Our models discount TPBI PCL at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TPBI PCL that is -24.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TPBI PCL (TPBI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TPBI PCL grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -24.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TPBI PCL (TPBI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TPBI PCL (-24.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.59 %: that much free cash flow TPBI PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TPBI PCL it is 7.38 THB per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 3.60 THB. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is TPBI PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, TPBI trades below its calculated fair value: price 3.60 THB, fair value 7.38 THB, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.60 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.38 THB). For TPBI PCL the two are 3.78 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TPBI PCL worth?
The market values TPBI PCL at about 1.5B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 3.60 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 7.38 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPBI?
Our models span a range for TPBI PCL: cautious scenario 5.53 THB, base 7.38 THB, optimistic 9.22 THB per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 3.60 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TPBI?
TPBI PCL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.38 THB is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.5. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for TPBI PCL (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPBI from its 52-week high?
TPBI PCL trades at 3.60 THB, about 7% below its 52-week high of 3.86 THB and 39% above the low of 2.59 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.38 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TPBI PCL?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TPBI PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 3.60 THB, calculated fair value 7.38 THB (+105%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPBI calculated?
We run TPBI PCL through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 7.38 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. TPBI PCL currently trades 51% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 3.60 THB. Our model-based fair value is 7.38 THB, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TPBI PCL right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (5.53 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of TPBI PCL (TPBI) come from?
Earnings per share at TPBI PCL grew −8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.7 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TPBI PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The market capitalisation of TPBI PCL is 1.5B THB (≈ $44.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TPBI PCL is 0.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
Earnings per share at TPBI PCL are 0.5400 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The dividend yield of TPBI PCL is 6.4% (payout 42.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The net margin of TPBI PCL is 4.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TPBI PCL is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TPBI PCL is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
The operating margin of TPBI PCL is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
Revenue at TPBI PCL is growing −1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TPBI PCL (TPBI)?
Earnings per share at TPBI PCL are growing +116% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TPBI PCL (TPBI) carry?
The net debt of TPBI PCL is 58.7M THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026