Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Targa Resources Inc stock $64.18, price $285, that is 77.5% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.00 – $314.99 · fair‑value band $39.50 – $124.11 · the $285.00 price screens above the $64.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Targa Resources Corp., together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, acquires, and develops a portfolio of complementary domestic infrastructure assets in North America. It operates in two segments, Gathering and Processing, and Logistics and Transportation.
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The company is involved in gathering, compressing, treating, processing, transporting, and selling natural gas; storing, fractionating, treating, transporting, and selling natural gas liquids (NGL) and NGL products, including services to liquefied petroleum gas exporters; and gathering, storing, terminaling, purchasing, and selling crude oil.
It is involved in the purchase and resale of NGL products; and sale of propane, as well as provision of related logistics services to multi-state retailers, independent retailers, and other end-users.
In addition, the company offers NGL balancing services; and transportation services to refineries and petrochemical companies in the Gulf Coast area, as well as purchases, markets, and resells natural gas. The company also leased and owned railcars, tractors, vacuum trucks and pressurized NGL barges.
Targa Resources Corp. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) currently trades at $285.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.18, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $110.71 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $285.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $36.96, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $39.50 (bear) to $124.11 (bull), the price of $285.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Targa Resources Inc reported revenue of $17.1B in FY2025 versus $17.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding +125.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $61.3B Large · P/E ratio 27.2 · P/S ratio 3.66 · EPS (TTM) $10.46 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 70.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −77%, TRGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($4.08 to $218.50). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$39.50Fair Value $64.18Bull$124.11
Price $285.00 · Downside -77.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.8M and none bought.
SalePaul W ChungDirector1,816 shares at $296.11$537,732Sep 1, 2026
SaleCharles R CrispDirector3× since Feb 24, 2026: 14,961 shares, avg. $260.41$3.9MAug 25, 2026
SaleWaters S Davis IVDirector2,400 shares at $299.67$719,206Aug 21, 2026
SaleRobert MuraroChief Commercial Officer24,589 shares at $241.34$5.9MMar 5, 2026
SalePatrick J. McDonieOfficer31,537 shares at $239.36$7.5MMar 2, 2026
SaleBenjamin James BranstetterOfficer3,258 shares at $238.83$778,124Mar 2, 2026
SaleLindsey CooksenDirector435 shares at $231.72$100,798Feb 26, 2026
SaleD. Scott PryorOfficer2× since Nov 14, 2025: 37,500 shares, avg. $198.67$7.5MFeb 25, 2026
SaleJennifer R. KnealePresident29,509 shares at $230.12$6.8MFeb 24, 2026
SaleGerald R ShraderOfficer2,750 shares at $181.21$498,328Dec 5, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+56.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.94.1% vs 17.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 20%
2025 sits 74% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.3% a year for the price and +16.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from new Permian processing plants backed by long-term fee-based contracts that support stable cash flows, yet it shows only limited evidence of a durable moat beyond standard infrastructure together with elevated debt.
Main risk: A slowdown in ExxonMobil's Permian drilling or production could reduce throughput on Targa's gathering, processing and NGL systems, squeezing fee-based cash flows.
Bull case: Long-term contracts with ExxonMobil and rising AI-driven power demand for natural gas could sustain high utilization of new Permian plants and downstream assets, supporting steady fee income.
Bear case: If ExxonMobil curtails activity or environmental rules tighten sharply, Targa could face lower volumes, elevated compliance spending and constrained cash flow for its capital program.
Targa is pushing ahead with new natural gas processing plants in the Permian Delaware and long-term fee-based contracts that tie directly to producer activity there. Higher throughput can lift stable midstream cash flows, but our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the added capacity and volume growth more than offset the capital outlays and any slowdown in drilling?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−77.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)70.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)27.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B19.97× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.66× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow104.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.23× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)21· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)32· sector 76
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.18 versus a price of $285.00, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TRGP?
Our model-based fair value for Targa Resources Inc is $64.18 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $285.00.
What is the quality score of TRGP?
Targa Resources Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.18 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.50, optimistic scenario $124.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Targa Resources Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.18, about 77% lower versus a price of $285.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.50, optimistic scenario $124.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Targa Resources Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Targa Resources Inc pay a dividend?
Targa Resources Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Targa Resources Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +43.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRGP use?
Our models discount Targa Resources Inc at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Targa Resources Inc that is +43.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Targa Resources Inc grew +15.7 % a year. The price currently implies +43.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Targa Resources Inc (+43.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 %: that much free cash flow Targa Resources Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Targa Resources Inc it is $64.18 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $285.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Targa Resources Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, TRGP trades above its calculated fair value: price $285.00, fair value $64.18, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($285.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.18). For Targa Resources Inc the two are $220.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Targa Resources Inc worth?
The market values Targa Resources Inc at about $61.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $285.00; our models calculate a fair value of $64.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRGP?
Our models span a range for Targa Resources Inc: cautious scenario $39.50, base $64.18, optimistic $124.11 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $285.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRGP?
Targa Resources Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.2 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.18 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 31.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 20.0, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TRGP?
The PEG ratio of Targa Resources Inc is 1.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Targa Resources Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 70.8%, debt of 5.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRGP from its 52-week high?
Targa Resources Inc trades at $285.00, about 10% below its 52-week high of $314.99 and 87% above the low of $152.32 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Targa Resources Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Targa Resources Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $285.00, calculated fair value $64.18 (−77%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRGP calculated?
We run Targa Resources Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Targa Resources Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $285.00. Our model-based fair value is $64.18, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Targa Resources Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($124.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($39.50 to $124.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) come from?
Earnings per share at Targa Resources Inc grew +14.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.7 %, EBIT margin +10.7 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +9.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Targa Resources Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The market capitalisation of Targa Resources Inc is $61.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Targa Resources Inc is 3.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Earnings per share at Targa Resources Inc are $10.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The dividend yield of Targa Resources Inc is 1.6% (payout 43.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The net margin of Targa Resources Inc is 13.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Targa Resources Inc is 70.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Targa Resources Inc is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
The operating margin of Targa Resources Inc is 27.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Revenue at Targa Resources Inc is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Targa Resources Inc (TRGP)?
Earnings per share at Targa Resources Inc are growing +23.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Targa Resources Inc (TRGP) carry?
The net debt of Targa Resources Inc is $17.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026