Trane Technologies plc (TT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Trane Technologies plc stock $224, price $410, that is 45.4% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsUS · Based in Ireland · ISIN IE00BK9ZQ967
TTBroad dataNov 5, 2026
Trane Technologies plc
TT · US
Solid,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 45% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 74/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 13.6% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
Wide moat81/100
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +18%, profit +25%.
Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
Insiders sold $43.9M (6M)
Fair value $223.94 · Strongly overvalued (−45.4%)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Liquid cooling shift could displace chillers🚩Rivals pursue similar liquid cooling acquisitions
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $115.02 – $502.27 · fair‑value band $143.49 – $309.43 · the $410.48 price screens above the $223.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Trane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration.
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It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; air sourced heat pumps; chillers; coils and condensers; auxiliary power, cold storage, and condensing units; controls contracting and commissioning, decarbonization programs, and gensets; dehumidifiers; energy and water efficiency programs; energy recovery ventilators and power solutions; energy storage; furnaces; home automation; humidifiers; HVAC performance-monitoring products; and indoor air quality assessments and related products for HVAC and transport solutions.
The company also provides asset management, building management, bus air purification, bus and rail HVAC, container refrigeration, control, ductless, geothermal, data center and multi-pipe HVAC, package heating and cooling, rail refrigeration, residential air filtration, self and vehicle powered truck refrigeration, temporary heating and cooling, truck refrigeration, unitary, variable refrigerant flow, and trailer refrigeration systems.
In addition, it offers industrial process refrigeration, installation contracting, lighting retrofit, medical grade refrigeration, refrigerant reclamation, renewable energy and storage, residential hybrid heating, telematics, thermostats/controls and associated digital, ventilation, and stationary cold storage solutions; packaged rooftop units; rate chambers; residential air filters; thermal energy storage; transport heater products; temperature freezers; energy infrastructure programs and management, repair and maintenance, smart and AI-enabled, and rental services; water source heat pumps; and aftermarket and OEM parts and supplies.
The company was formerly known as Ingersoll-Rand Plc and changed its name to Trane Technologies plc in March 2020. The company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Swords, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Trane Technologies plc (TT) currently trades at $410.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $223.94, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $244.94 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $410.48 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $52.59, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $143.49 (bear) to $309.43 (bull), the price of $410.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Trane Technologies plc reported revenue of $21.3B in FY2025 versus $14.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2025, compounding +19.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $91.6B Large · P/E ratio 28.5 · P/S ratio 3.94 · EPS (TTM) $14.39 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 36.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −45%, TT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$143.49Fair Value $223.94Bull$309.43
Price $410.48 · Downside -45.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $43.9M and none bought.
SaleDavid S RegneryChair and CEO, Director5× since Feb 6, 2026: 134,489 shares, avg. $462.08$62.1MOct 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMelissa N. SchaefferDirector145 shares at $472.27$68,479Aug 4, 2026
SaleDonald E. SimmonsGroup President, Americas5× since Feb 6, 2026: 17,279 shares, avg. $469.07$8.1MApr 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher J KuehnExecutive Vice President & CFO2× since Feb 10, 2026: 11,008 shares, avg. $452.76$5.0MApr 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleElizabeth A. ElwellVP & Chief Accounting Officer3× since Feb 6, 2026: 818 shares, avg. $430.97$352,533Mar 6, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJohn A HayesDirector400 shares at $430.44$172,176Mar 5, 2026
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.289
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.9% vs 17.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.2% a year for the price and +6.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Profitability metrics indicate possible moat elements in HVAC products, yet limited public signals on intangibles leave durability uncertain amid acquisition integration.
Main risk: A shift toward direct-to-chip and immersion liquid cooling for high-density AI racks could reduce the need for traditional chiller systems in cutting-edge data centers, affecting equipment sales and margins in Trane's commercial HVAC business.
Bull case: By completing its LiquidStack acquisition and integrating advanced liquid cooling with its existing HVAC systems and reference designs, Trane could become a preferred end-to-end thermal management partner for AI data centers and expand its services revenue.
Bear case: If direct-to-chip liquid cooling rapidly displaces legacy chillers and rivals capture more of the data center market, Trane's traditional equipment sales in commercial HVAC could stagnate while overall growth slows.
Trane Technologies recently agreed to acquire Cancoil to strengthen supply chain resilience and thermal management expertise. This fits the surge in commercial HVAC demand, especially for efficient cooling solutions. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these moves expand the addressable market in data centers and sustainability projects faster than margin pressures from inflation and integration can offset?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.5× · Pricier than median
P/B10.65× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.94× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow32.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.44× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)89· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Trane Technologies plc (TT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $223.94 versus a price of $410.48, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TT?
Our model-based fair value for Trane Technologies plc is $223.94 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $410.48.
What is the quality score of TT?
Trane Technologies plc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $223.94 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $143.49, optimistic scenario $309.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trane Technologies plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $223.94, about 45% lower versus a price of $410.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $143.49, optimistic scenario $309.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Trane Technologies plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Trane Technologies plc pay a dividend?
Trane Technologies plc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trane Technologies plc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TT use?
Our models discount Trane Technologies plc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trane Technologies plc that is +18.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trane Technologies plc (TT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trane Technologies plc grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +18.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trane Technologies plc (TT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trane Technologies plc (+18.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.07 %: that much free cash flow Trane Technologies plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trane Technologies plc it is $223.94 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $410.48. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trane Technologies plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TT trades above its calculated fair value: price $410.48, fair value $223.94, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($410.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($223.94). For Trane Technologies plc the two are $186.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trane Technologies plc worth?
The market values Trane Technologies plc at about $91.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $410.48; our models calculate a fair value of $223.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TT?
Our models span a range for Trane Technologies plc: cautious scenario $143.49, base $223.94, optimistic $309.43 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $410.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TT?
Trane Technologies plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $223.94 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2020, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 31.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 10.7, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 20.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TT?
The PEG ratio of Trane Technologies plc is 1.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trane Technologies plc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 36.9%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TT from its 52-week high?
Trane Technologies plc trades at $410.48, about 18% below its 52-week high of $502.27 and 10% above the low of $373.79 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $223.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trane Technologies plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, Geberit AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trane Technologies plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $410.48, calculated fair value $223.94 (−45%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TT calculated?
We run Trane Technologies plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $223.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Trane Technologies plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $410.48. Our model-based fair value is $223.94, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trane Technologies plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($309.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($143.49 to $309.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Trane Technologies plc (TT) come from?
Earnings per share at Trane Technologies plc grew +12.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +5.1 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Trane Technologies plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The market capitalisation of Trane Technologies plc is $91.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trane Technologies plc is 3.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Earnings per share at Trane Technologies plc are $14.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The dividend yield of Trane Technologies plc is 1.0% (payout 28.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The net margin of Trane Technologies plc is 13.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trane Technologies plc is 36.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trane Technologies plc is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
The operating margin of Trane Technologies plc is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Revenue at Trane Technologies plc is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trane Technologies plc (TT)?
Earnings per share at Trane Technologies plc are growing +25.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Trane Technologies plc (TT) carry?
The net debt of Trane Technologies plc is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026