Tivan Ltd (TVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tivan Ltd stock A$0.02, price A$0.15, that is 88.7% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0450 – A$0.4700 · fair‑value band A$0.0085 – A$0.0170 · the A$0.1500 price screens above the A$0.0170 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Tivan Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It explores for critical mineral, fluorite, vanadium, titanium, silver, lead, copper, tungsten, and lithium deposits.
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The company focuses on the 100% owned Speewah fluorite and vanadium projects located in the Kimberley region of north-east Western Australia. It also develops and commercializes TIVAN+ critical minerals processing technology for the recovery of vanadium.
The company holds 30% interest in exploration licence EL22349 and 100% interest in mining leases of ML33904, ML79, ML3905, ML33903 and ML86. The company was formerly known as TNG Limited and changed its name to Tivan Limited in January 2023.
Tivan Limited was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Darwin, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tivan Ltd (TVN) currently trades at A$0.1500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0170, 89% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0085 (bear) to A$0.0170 (bull), the price of A$0.1500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Tivan Ltd reported revenue of A$69.0K in FY2025 versus A$184K in FY2021, a compound −21.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$14.2M in FY2026.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −89%, TVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.0085Fair Value A$0.0170BullA$0.0170
Price A$0.1500 · Downside -88.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0100A$0.0200A$0.020053
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0100A$0.0200A$0.020053
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,924.2% (2020) → −10,492.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 371 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−88.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−15.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.90× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 92
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tivan Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TVN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tivan Ltd (TVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0170 versus a price of A$0.1500, about 89% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TVN?
Our model-based fair value for Tivan Ltd is A$0.0170 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1500.
What is the quality score of TVN?
Tivan Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0170 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0085, optimistic scenario A$0.0170. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tivan Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0170, about 89% lower versus a price of A$0.1500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0085, optimistic scenario A$0.0170. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Tivan Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$124K (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tivan Ltd it is A$0.0170 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.1500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Tivan Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, TVN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1500, fair value A$0.0170, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0170). For Tivan Ltd the two are A$0.1330 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tivan Ltd worth?
The market values Tivan Ltd at about A$341M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1500; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0170 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TVN?
Our models span a range for Tivan Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0085, base A$0.0170, optimistic A$0.0170 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price A$0.1500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tivan Ltd (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −24.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TVN from its 52-week high?
Tivan Ltd trades at A$0.1500, about 68% below its 52-week high of A$0.4700 and 7% above the low of A$0.1400 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0170 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tivan Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tivan Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price A$0.1500, calculated fair value A$0.0170 (−89%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TVN calculated?
We run Tivan Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0170 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Tivan Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$0.1500. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0170, about 89% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tivan Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0170). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0085 to A$0.0170) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tivan Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The market capitalisation of Tivan Ltd is A$341M (≈ $234M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Earnings per share at Tivan Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tivan Ltd is −24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tivan Ltd is −55.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The operating margin of Tivan Ltd is −7,678% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Revenue at Tivan Ltd is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tivan Ltd (TVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tivan Ltd is −A$9.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tivan Ltd (TVN) hold?
Tivan Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$20.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 27, 2026
