Tivan Ltd (TVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Tivan Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Valuation from Jun 24, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0450 – A$0.4700 · fair‑value band A$0.0340 – A$0.0510 · the A$0.1950 price screens above the A$0.0425 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
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Tivan Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It explores for critical mineral, fluorite, vanadium, titanium, silver, lead, copper, tungsten, and lithium deposits.
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Tivan Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It explores for critical mineral, fluorite, vanadium, titanium, silver, lead, copper, tungsten, and lithium deposits. The company focuses on the 100% owned Speewah fluorite and vanadium projects located in the Kimberley region of north-east Western Australia. It also develops and commercializes TIVAN+ critical minerals processing technology for the recovery of vanadium. The company holds 30% interest in exploration licence EL22349 and 100% interest in mining leases of ML33904, ML79, ML3905, ML33903 and ML86. The company was formerly known as TNG Limited and changed its name to Tivan Limited in January 2023. Tivan Limited was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Darwin, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tivan Ltd (TVN) currently trades at A$0.1950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0425, implying the stock looks roughly 358.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 4 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0340 (bear) to A$0.0510 (bull), the price of A$0.1950 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Tivan Ltd reported revenue of A$69.0K in FY2025 versus A$184K in FY2021, a compound −21.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$638M (≈ $449M) · Return on equity −15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −53.0% · Operating margin 101,767% · Revenue (TTM) −A$9.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) +14.6% · Free cash flow −A$13.3M · Net cash A$5.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −78%, TVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0340Fair Value A$0.0425Bull A$0.0510
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,924.2% (2020) → −10,492.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Below median
Fair Value upside−78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−11% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B11.58× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tivan Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TVN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tivan Ltd (TVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0425 versus a price of A$0.1950, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TVN?
Our model-based fair value for Tivan Ltd is A$0.0425 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1950.
What is the quality score of TVN?
Tivan Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0425 (as of Jun 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0340, optimistic scenario A$0.0510. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tivan Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0425, about −78% upside versus a price of A$0.1950 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0340, optimistic scenario A$0.0510. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tivan Ltd it is A$0.0425 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.1950. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tivan Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 24, 2026, TVN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1950, fair value A$0.0425, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0425). For Tivan Ltd the two are A$0.1525 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tivan Ltd worth?
The market values Tivan Ltd at about A$638M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1950; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0425 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TVN?
Our models span a range for Tivan Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0340, base A$0.0425, optimistic A$0.0510 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026, price A$0.1950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tivan Ltd (as of Jun 24, 2026): return on equity −15.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TVN from its 52-week high?
Tivan Ltd trades at A$0.1950, about 59% below its 52-week high of A$0.4700 and 86% above the low of A$0.1050 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0425 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tivan Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tivan Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 24, 2026: price A$0.1950, calculated fair value A$0.0425 (−78%), Quality Score 33/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TVN calculated?
We run Tivan Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0425, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tivan Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.1950. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0425, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tivan Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0510). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Tivan Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The market capitalisation of Tivan Ltd is A$638M (≈ $449M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tivan Ltd is −15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tivan Ltd is −53.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
The operating margin of Tivan Ltd is 101,767% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Tivan Ltd (TVN) generate?
Tivan Ltd generates revenue of −A$9.0K (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Tivan Ltd (TVN)?
Revenue at Tivan Ltd is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tivan Ltd (TVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tivan Ltd is −A$13.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tivan Ltd (TVN) hold?
Tivan Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$5.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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