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Data-driven stock valuation

MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock $6.61, price $13.13, that is 49.6% below the price, quality 20 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy US

MP MorningStar Partners, L.P. logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

MorningStar Partners, L.P.

TXO · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Upbeat coverage
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +30.5 %/yr in USD)
13.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Insiders bought $33.5M (6M)
Some data
Revenue last quarter 45% below a year ago.
Fair value $6.61 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 20/100
Loss-making · -20.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 17/100
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.47 $9.36 Fair Value $6.61 Jan 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

45‑month range $9.36 – $17.47 · fair‑value band $3.88 – $9.35 · the $13.13 price screens above the $6.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America.

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Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota.

TXO Partners, L.P. was formerly known as TXO Energy Partners, L.P. and changed its name to TXO Partners, L.P. in May 2023. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

Stock analysis

MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) currently trades at $13.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.61, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.36 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $13.13 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.96, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.88 (bear) to $9.35 (bull), the price of $13.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MorningStar Partners, L.P. reported revenue of $411M in FY2025 versus $228M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $744M Small · P/S ratio 1.95 · EPS (TTM) $−1.40 · Dividend yield 13.0% · Net margin −20.5% · Return on equity −11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −70.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, TXO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.88 Fair Value $6.61 Bull $9.35
Price $13.13 · Downside -49.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA $4.57 $7.78 $11.00 65
NCAV (Graham) $6.24 $8.36 $12.48 54
EV/Revenue n/a $0.1400 >$0.5600 50
All 3 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $4.57 $7.78 $11.00 65
EV/Revenue n/a $0.1400 >$0.5600 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.24 $8.36 $12.48 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 8
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 32
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 44
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 28
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 87
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 52
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 54
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $33.5M, on Aug 13, 2026.

  • BuyBob R SimpsonDirector, 10% owner9× since May 7, 2026: 2,750,000 shares, avg. $13.31$36.6MAug 13, 2026
  • BuyWilliam H Adams IIIDirector10,000 shares at $12.41$124,100May 8, 2026
  • SaleGary D. SimpsonCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director2× since Jan 31, 2026: 35,360 shares, avg. $12.31$435,238Apr 1, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleBrent W. ClumCo-CEO and CFO, Director2× since Jan 31, 2026: 46,805 shares, avg. $12.25$573,379Apr 1, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleScott T. AgostaChief Accounting Officer10,689 shares at $12.07$129,016Jan 31, 202610b5-1 plan
  • BuyPhillip R KevilDirector2,000 shares at $11.90$23,800Dec 11, 2025

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−142.8% (2020) → 5.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TXO screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (74 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −49.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −20.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −70.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −45.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 13.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 2.07× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $178.96 $242.64 +36% vs TXO
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.48 HK$26.76 +14% vs TXO
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $147.13 $166.94 +13% vs TXO
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $48.55 $53.41 +10% vs TXO
EQT Corporation EQT $49.40 $54.34 +10% vs TXO
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $42.21 $39.47 −7% vs TXO
Woodside Energy Group WDS $21.04 $19.39 −8% vs TXO
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $136.27 $92.89 −32% vs TXO
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $56.38 $33.18 −41% vs TXO
Aker BP ASA AKRBP kr 316.80 kr 127.39 −60% vs TXO

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MorningStar Partners, L.P.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MorningStar Partners, L.P. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXO

Frequently asked questions

Is MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.61 versus a price of $13.13, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXO?
Our model-based fair value for MorningStar Partners, L.P. is $6.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.13.
What is the quality score of TXO?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.88, optimistic scenario $9.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.61, about 50% lower versus a price of $13.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.88, optimistic scenario $9.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $360M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does MorningStar Partners, L.P. pay a dividend?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. currently shows a dividend yield of 13.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. pays a dividend of $1.71 per share a year, a dividend yield of 13.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 14, 2026. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MorningStar Partners, L.P. it is $6.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $13.13. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TXO trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.13, fair value $6.61, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.61). For MorningStar Partners, L.P. the two are $6.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MorningStar Partners, L.P. worth?
The market values MorningStar Partners, L.P. at about $744M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $13.13; our models calculate a fair value of $6.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXO?
Our models span a range for MorningStar Partners, L.P.: cautious scenario $3.88, base $6.61, optimistic $9.35 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $13.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Balance-sheet figures for MorningStar Partners, L.P. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −11.1%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXO from its 52-week high?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. trades at $13.13, about 15% below its 52-week high of $15.44 and 40% above the low of $9.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MorningStar Partners, L.P.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $13.13, calculated fair value $6.61 (−50%), Quality Score 20/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXO calculated?
We run MorningStar Partners, L.P. through 3 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. MorningStar Partners, L.P. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $13.13. Our model-based fair value is $6.61, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MorningStar Partners, L.P. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($3.88 to $9.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MorningStar Partners, L.P.

How large is the market capitalisation of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The market capitalisation of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is $744M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is 1.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Earnings per share at MorningStar Partners, L.P. are $−1.40. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The dividend yield of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is 13.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The net margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −20.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The operating margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −70.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Revenue at MorningStar Partners, L.P. is growing −45.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Earnings per share at MorningStar Partners, L.P. are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) generate?
The free cash flow of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −$145M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) carry?
The net debt of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is $282M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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