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MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MorningStar Partners, L.P. $6.61, price $14.20, upside -53.4%, quality 22 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US · ISIN US87313P1030

MP MorningStar Partners, L.P. logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

MorningStar Partners, L.P.

TXO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $6.61 · Strongly overvalued (−53%)
!Quality 22/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +30.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·9.93% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Insider activity 44/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.47 $9.36 Fair Value $6.61 Jan 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

44‑month range $9.36 – $17.47 · fair‑value band $3.89 – $9.35 · the $14.20 price screens above the $6.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America.

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TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota. TXO Partners, L.P. was formerly known as TXO Energy Partners, L.P. and changed its name to TXO Partners, L.P. in May 2023. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

Stock analysis

MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) currently trades at $14.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.61, implying the stock looks roughly 114.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Scenario range: $3.89 (bear) to $9.35 (bull), the price of $14.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MorningStar Partners, L.P. reported revenue of $411M in FY2025 versus $228M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $805M · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7300 · Dividend yield 9.9% · Net margin −5.3% · Return on equity −5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% · Operating margin 38.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −53%, TXO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.89 Fair Value $6.61 Bull $9.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA $4.57 $7.78 $11.00 65
NCAV (Graham) $6.24 $8.36 $12.48 54
EV/Revenue n/a $0.1400 $1.71 50
All 3 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $4.57 $7.78 $11.00 65
EV/Revenue n/a $0.1400 $1.71 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.24 $8.36 $12.48 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 22/100

Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−142.8% (2020) → 5.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TXO screens 115% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 68% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.98× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 73

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.34 HK$39.89 +71%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $125.27 $90.15 −28%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.77 $52.55 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $139.52 $165.02 +18%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $56.31 $33.34 −41%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $184.50 $242.64 +32%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $46.93 $51.62 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $50.81 $55.89 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $355.24 $318.28 −10%

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MorningStar Partners, L.P. · Fair Value
$6.61 −115%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MorningStar Partners, L.P. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXO

Frequently asked questions

Is MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.61 versus a price of $14.20, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXO?
Our model-based fair value for MorningStar Partners, L.P. is $6.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.20.
What is the quality score of TXO?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.89, optimistic scenario $9.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.61, about −53% upside versus a price of $14.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.89, optimistic scenario $9.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $406M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does MorningStar Partners, L.P. pay a dividend?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MorningStar Partners, L.P. it is $6.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.20. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TXO trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.20, fair value $6.61, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.61). For MorningStar Partners, L.P. the two are $7.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MorningStar Partners, L.P. worth?
The market values MorningStar Partners, L.P. at about $805M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.20; our models calculate a fair value of $6.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXO?
Our models span a range for MorningStar Partners, L.P.: cautious scenario $3.89, base $6.61, optimistic $9.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Balance-sheet figures for MorningStar Partners, L.P. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.4%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 22/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXO from its 52-week high?
MorningStar Partners, L.P. trades at $14.20, about 8% below its 52-week high of $15.44 and 52% above the low of $9.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MorningStar Partners, L.P.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MorningStar Partners, L.P. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.20, calculated fair value $6.61 (−53%), Quality Score 22/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXO calculated?
We run MorningStar Partners, L.P. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MorningStar Partners, L.P. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.20. Our model-based fair value is $6.61, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MorningStar Partners, L.P. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($3.89 to $9.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MorningStar Partners, L.P.

How large is the market capitalisation of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The market capitalisation of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is $805M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is 1.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Earnings per share at MorningStar Partners, L.P. are $−0.7300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The dividend yield of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is 9.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The net margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
The operating margin of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is 38.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Revenue at MorningStar Partners, L.P. is growing +67.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO)?
Earnings per share at MorningStar Partners, L.P. are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) generate?
The free cash flow of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is −$145M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MorningStar Partners, L.P. (TXO) carry?
The net debt of MorningStar Partners, L.P. is $282M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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