Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Sanso Holdings stock $30.06, price $37.86, that is 20.6% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.15 – $41.34 · fair‑value band $19.62 – $38.75 · the $37.86 price screens above the $30.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of various industrial gases in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
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It offers industrial gases for various industries; medical gases for hospitals and home-based care; and electronic material gases for manufacturing process of liquid-crystal and semiconductor; and various products under the Thermos name.
The company was formerly known as Taiyo Nippon Sanso Corporation and changed its name to Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation in October 2020. Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation is a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) currently trades at $37.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.06, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $38.57 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $37.86 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.24, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.62 (bear) to $38.75 (bull), the price of $37.86 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nippon Sanso Holdings reported revenue of ¥1.4T in FY2026 versus ¥957B in FY2022, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥125B in FY2026, compounding +18.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $16.4B Large · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $2.08 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −21%, TYNPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.62Fair Value $30.06Bull$38.75
Price $37.86 · Downside -20.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.7% vs 15.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.1% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Nippon Sanso's acquisitions in carbon management and respiratory care strengthen ties to sustainability and healthcare demand, yet the capital-heavy model with large overseas exposure risks diluting focus on core gas operations.
Main risk: Global leaders such as Linde and Air Liquide with greater scale and reach might capture electronics or industrial gas customers from Nippon Sanso or compel price cuts that compress margins.
Bull case: By leveraging its strong position in Japan and Asia plus targeted acquisitions in electronics and sustainability applications Nippon Sanso could defend volumes and margins against larger rivals through specialised offerings and local supply reliability.
Bear case: If larger competitors expand aggressively in key Asian markets and geopolitical issues disrupt helium or specialty gas supplies Nippon Sanso might lose customers in electronics and face higher costs or delivery shortfalls that erode its core gas volumes.
Nippon Sanso is expanding its Spanish platform with acquisitions in carbon management and home respiratory care while supplying essential industrial gases to over 30,000 customers across resilient sectors. These steps tap into sustainability and healthcare demand but sit alongside a capital-heavy business model that already carries significant overseas exposure. Does the push into circular CO2 and medical services reinforce steady gas volumes enough to justify the added complexity, or does it risk diluting focus on the core operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.12× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.85× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.8× · Cheaper than median
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Is Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.06 versus a price of $37.86, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TYNPF?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Sanso Holdings is $30.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.86.
What is the quality score of TYNPF?
Nippon Sanso Holdings has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.06 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.62, optimistic scenario $38.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Sanso Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.06, about 21% lower versus a price of $37.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.62, optimistic scenario $38.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Nippon Sanso Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.4T (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Nippon Sanso Holdings pay a dividend?
Nippon Sanso Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nippon Sanso Holdings pays a dividend of $0.378 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 20.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.34 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Sanso Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TYNPF use?
Our models discount Nippon Sanso Holdings at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Sanso Holdings that is +5.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nippon Sanso Holdings grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +5.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Sanso Holdings (+5.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.31 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Sanso Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Sanso Holdings it is $30.06 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $37.86. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Nippon Sanso Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, TYNPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.86, fair value $30.06, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TYNPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.06). For Nippon Sanso Holdings the two are $7.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Sanso Holdings worth?
The market values Nippon Sanso Holdings at about $16.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $37.86; our models calculate a fair value of $30.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYNPF?
Our models span a range for Nippon Sanso Holdings: cautious scenario $19.62, base $30.06, optimistic $38.75 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $37.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TYNPF?
Nippon Sanso Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Sanso Holdings (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TYNPF from its 52-week high?
Nippon Sanso Holdings trades at $37.86, about 8% below its 52-week high of $41.34 and 36% above the low of $27.80 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Sanso Holdings?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Rongsheng Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Sanso Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $37.86, calculated fair value $30.06 (−21%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TYNPF calculated?
We run Nippon Sanso Holdings through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $30.06 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Sanso Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $37.86. Our model-based fair value is $30.06, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Sanso Holdings right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($19.62 to $38.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) come from?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sanso Holdings grew +16.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +7.0 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nippon Sanso Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Sanso Holdings is $16.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Sanso Holdings is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sanso Holdings are $2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Sanso Holdings is 1.0% (payout 18.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The net margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings is 9.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Sanso Holdings is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Sanso Holdings is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
The operating margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Revenue at Nippon Sanso Holdings is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sanso Holdings are growing +54.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Sanso Holdings (TYNPF) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Sanso Holdings is ¥721B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 10, 2026