UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UniCredit S.p.A. stock €50.44, price €77.18, that is 34.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.52 – €86.15 · fair‑value band €42.84 – €63.34 · the €77.18 price screens above the €50.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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UniCredit S.p.A. provides commercial banking services in Italy, Germany, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. The company offers retail, private, and wealth management solutions; and institutional investor solutions.
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It also provides corporate finance advisory, rating advisory, financial sponsor, patient capital, capital structure advisory, and sustainable finance solutions, as well as securities services.
In addition, the company offers transactional and risk management, structured finance, debt funding, equity funding, project finance, commodity trade finance, and trade and export finance services; group trade and correspondent banking services; and payments solutions.
It serves SME, corporate, multinational corporate, financial institution, and public sector clients, as well as retail, private banking, wealth management, and family office clients. UniCredit S.p.A. was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) currently trades at €77.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €50.44, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €50.44 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €77.18 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €22.05, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €42.84 (bear) to €63.34 (bull), the price of €77.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2009: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2009.
UniCredit S.p.A. reported revenue of €25.0B in FY2025 versus €18.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was €10.9B in FY2025, compounding +63.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €118B Large · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) €7.06 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 44.0% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −35%, UCG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€42.84Fair Value €50.44Bull€63.34
Price €77.18 · Downside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2009: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2009.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+58.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Per share before 2009divided by the spin-off factor 1.1824
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.54.4% vs 16.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−13% → 55%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.9% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Solid margins and ROE stand as the main strength of this regional bank, while limited signals of a durable moat beyond typical sector scale and regulatory barriers form the key weakness.
Main risk: Numerous ongoing legal proceedings with billions in claimed damages could lead to higher provisions that squeeze the bank's margins or capital.
Bull case: By resolving legal cases efficiently and strengthening compliance processes the bank could reduce future litigation exposure and free resources for core operations.
Bear case: If unfavourable rulings lead to substantial payouts the bank might face increased provisions that constrain lending capacity or profitability over several years.
UniCredit is bringing its Italian securities-services unit back in-house and welcoming 54 specialists from Societe Generale next January. This operational tightening arrives while the bank moves closer to taking control of Commerzbank. Will the added internal control and efficiency strengthen its core regional banking franchise, or will the dual focus on domestic streamlining and a major cross-border integration stretch execution capacity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−34.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)44.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)68.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.74× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.73× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow16.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.7× · Pricier than median
PEG0.84× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)29· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)75· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UniCredit S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UCG
Frequently asked questions
Is UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €50.44 versus a price of €77.18, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UCG?
Our model-based fair value for UniCredit S.p.A. is €50.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €77.18.
What is the quality score of UCG?
UniCredit S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €50.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €42.84, optimistic scenario €63.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UniCredit S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €50.44, about 35% lower versus a price of €77.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €42.84, optimistic scenario €63.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
UniCredit S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €24.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does UniCredit S.p.A. pay a dividend?
UniCredit S.p.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UniCredit S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +30.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UCG use?
Our models discount UniCredit S.p.A. at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UniCredit S.p.A. that is +30.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UniCredit S.p.A. grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies +30.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UniCredit S.p.A. (+30.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow UniCredit S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UniCredit S.p.A. it is €50.44 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €77.18. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UniCredit S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, UCG trades above its calculated fair value: price €77.18, fair value €50.44, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UCG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€77.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€50.44). For UniCredit S.p.A. the two are €26.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UniCredit S.p.A. worth?
The market values UniCredit S.p.A. at about €118B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €77.18; our models calculate a fair value of €50.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UCG?
Our models span a range for UniCredit S.p.A.: cautious scenario €42.84, base €50.44, optimistic €63.34 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €77.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UCG?
UniCredit S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €50.44 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.9 (reported for FY2025: 12.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 5.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.7, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of UCG?
The PEG ratio of UniCredit S.p.A. is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
Balance-sheet figures for UniCredit S.p.A. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 1.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UCG from its 52-week high?
UniCredit S.p.A. trades at €77.18, about 10% below its 52-week high of €86.15 and 33% above the low of €58.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €50.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UniCredit S.p.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, Mizuho Financial Group, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UniCredit S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €77.18, calculated fair value €50.44 (−35%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UCG calculated?
We run UniCredit S.p.A. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €50.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. UniCredit S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €77.18. Our model-based fair value is €50.44, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UniCredit S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€63.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) come from?
Earnings per share at UniCredit S.p.A. grew +15.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.5 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +17.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of UniCredit S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The market capitalisation of UniCredit S.p.A. is €118B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UniCredit S.p.A. is 4.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
Earnings per share at UniCredit S.p.A. are €7.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The dividend yield of UniCredit S.p.A. is 3.8% (payout 37.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 41.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The net margin of UniCredit S.p.A. is 44.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UniCredit S.p.A. is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UniCredit S.p.A. is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
The operating margin of UniCredit S.p.A. is 68.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
Revenue at UniCredit S.p.A. is growing −9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG)?
Earnings per share at UniCredit S.p.A. are growing −10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UniCredit S.p.A. (UCG) carry?
The net debt of UniCredit S.p.A. is €75.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026