Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Upstart Holdings Inc stock $7.05, price $21.89, that is 67.8% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.10 – $390.00 · fair‑value band $5.28 – $8.81 · the $21.89 price screens above the $7.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.
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Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Stock analysis
Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) currently trades at $21.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.05, 68% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $22.34 per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the $21.89 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.90, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.28 (bear) to $8.81 (bull), the price of $21.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Upstart Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $849M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was $53.6M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 35.9 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) $0.6100 · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −68%, UPST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.28Fair Value $7.05Bull$8.81
Price $21.89 · Downside -67.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5231 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $2.7M, on Sep 10, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $5.6M.
BuyPaul GuChief Executive Officer, Director3× since Nov 11, 2025: 200,000 shares, avg. $32.88$6.6MSep 10, 2026
SaleSanjay DattaPresident, Capital& Enterprise8× since Nov 20, 2025: 183,386 shares, avg. $28.72$5.3MSep 8, 2026
SaleNatalia MirgorodskayaOfficer9× since Nov 20, 2025: 6,471 shares, avg. $31.06$200,965Aug 25, 2026
SaleScott DarlingChief Legal Officer8× since Nov 20, 2025: 38,854 shares, avg. $35.00$1.4MAug 20, 2026
SaleAndrea BlankmeyerChief Financial Officer2× since May 15, 2026: 17,219 shares, avg. $29.47$507,362Aug 19, 2026
BuyDave GirouardDirector, 10% owner170,240 shares at $29.37$5.0MMay 7, 2026
SaleKerry Whorton CooperDirector1,500 shares at $50.00$75,000Dec 12, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+58.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Upstart has rapidly scaled originations via its AI lending platform yet shows limited moat signals and weak cash conversion despite reported profits.
Main risk: Risks around model calibration amid shifting conditions could undermine the reliability of its AI lending platform and hit margins.
Upstart has scaled originations rapidly with its AI lending platform, but take rates have declined from 9.5% to 8.2% and some recent vintages are now expected to underperform their target returns. Lawsuits have highlighted risks around model calibration amid shifting conditions. Does expansion into secured products and new funding lines strengthen the platform enough to overcome these pressures on margins and reliability?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 283 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−67.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.0% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)35.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.01× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.74× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA26.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 59
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 54
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.05 versus a price of $21.89, about 68% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UPST?
Our model-based fair value for Upstart Holdings Inc is $7.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.89.
What is the quality score of UPST?
Upstart Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.28, optimistic scenario $8.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Upstart Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.05, about 68% lower versus a price of $21.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.28, optimistic scenario $8.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Upstart Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Upstart Holdings Inc it is $7.05 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $21.89. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Upstart Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, UPST trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.89, fair value $7.05, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.05). For Upstart Holdings Inc the two are $14.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Upstart Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Upstart Holdings Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $21.89; our models calculate a fair value of $7.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPST?
Our models span a range for Upstart Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $5.28, base $7.05, optimistic $8.81 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $21.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UPST?
Upstart Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.05 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.6 (reported for FY2025: 45.8). Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 26.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Upstart Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 2.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UPST from its 52-week high?
Upstart Holdings Inc trades at $21.89, about 57% below its 52-week high of $50.70 and 3% above the low of $21.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Upstart Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Upstart Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $21.89, calculated fair value $7.05 (−68%), Quality Score 40/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPST calculated?
We run Upstart Holdings Inc through 7 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $7.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Upstart Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.89. Our model-based fair value is $7.05, about 68% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Upstart Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Upstart Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
The market capitalisation of Upstart Holdings Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Upstart Holdings Inc is 1.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Earnings per share at Upstart Holdings Inc are $0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
The net margin of Upstart Holdings Inc is 4.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Upstart Holdings Inc is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Upstart Holdings Inc is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
The operating margin of Upstart Holdings Inc is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Revenue at Upstart Holdings Inc is growing +34.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Earnings per share at Upstart Holdings Inc are growing +44.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) generate?
The free cash flow of Upstart Holdings Inc is −$166M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) carry?
The net debt of Upstart Holdings Inc is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026