Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vulcan Materials Company stock $133, price $286, that is 53.4% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $136.82 – $328.48 · fair‑value band $82.89 – $176.33 · the $285.51 price screens above the $132.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete.
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The company provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; aggregates that are used as ballast for construction and maintenance of railroad tracks; riprap and jetty stones for use in erosion control along roads and waterways; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products.
The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Stock analysis
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) currently trades at $285.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $132.92, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $135.43 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $285.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.99, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $82.89 (bear) to $176.33 (bull), the price of $285.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vulcan Materials Company reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $37.3B Large · P/E ratio 33.8 · P/S ratio 4.66 · EPS (TTM) $8.45 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 13.8% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −53%, VMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$82.89Fair Value $132.92Bull$176.33
Price $285.51 · Downside -53.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $14.5M and none bought.
SaleJ Thomas HillDirector2× since Aug 21, 2026: 42,000 shares, avg. $282.32$11.9MNov 3, 2026
SaleDavid P ClementSenior Vice President4× since Nov 19, 2025: 11,212 shares, avg. $288.37$3.2MNov 2, 2026
SaleMelissa H. AndersonDirector1,137 shares at $303.72$345,330Feb 20, 2026
SaleThompson S Baker IIPresident3× since Nov 10, 2025: 16,231 shares, avg. $296.37$4.8MDec 11, 2025
SaleDenson N. Franklin IIISVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary665 shares at $295.00$196,175Dec 10, 2025
SaleGrayson HallDirector4,658 shares at $290.74$1.4MNov 10, 2025
SaleStanley G BassChief Strategy Officer3,333 shares at $288.00$959,904Nov 7, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.1% vs 17.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.6% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Vulcan Materials benefits from strong local market scale in aggregates as its primary moat, while average innovation and cyclical construction demand constrain broader growth potential.
Main risk: Stricter environmental rules and community opposition could make it harder to permit or expand quarries, limiting access to strategically located reserves and eroding the local scale advantage in key markets.
Bull case: By leveraging technology for higher yields at existing sites and pursuing acquisitions or alternative sourcing, the company could secure sufficient reserves despite permitting challenges and maintain or grow aggregates volumes.
Bear case: If permitting becomes significantly harder and recycled materials gain share while Mexico assets remain inaccessible, reserve depletion could constrain production growth and force reliance on higher-cost or distant sources, squeezing margins.
Vulcan focuses on its core strength as the largest U.S. producer of construction aggregates while exiting ready-mixed concrete operations in California to sharpen that edge. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the emphasis on aggregates unit profitability drive sustained earnings growth, or will higher costs and uneven construction demand limit the gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−53.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vulcan Materials Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VMC
Frequently asked questions
Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $132.92 versus a price of $285.51, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VMC?
Our model-based fair value for Vulcan Materials Company is $132.92 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $285.51.
What is the quality score of VMC?
Vulcan Materials Company has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $132.92 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $82.89, optimistic scenario $176.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vulcan Materials Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $132.92, about 53% lower versus a price of $285.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $82.89, optimistic scenario $176.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Vulcan Materials Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Vulcan Materials Company pay a dividend?
Vulcan Materials Company currently shows a dividend yield of 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vulcan Materials Company would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VMC use?
Our models discount Vulcan Materials Company at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vulcan Materials Company that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vulcan Materials Company grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vulcan Materials Company (+19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.04 %: that much free cash flow Vulcan Materials Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vulcan Materials Company it is $132.92 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $285.51. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vulcan Materials Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, VMC trades above its calculated fair value: price $285.51, fair value $132.92, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($285.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($132.92). For Vulcan Materials Company the two are $152.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vulcan Materials Company worth?
The market values Vulcan Materials Company at about $37.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $285.51; our models calculate a fair value of $132.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VMC?
Our models span a range for Vulcan Materials Company: cautious scenario $82.89, base $132.92, optimistic $176.33 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $285.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VMC?
Vulcan Materials Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $132.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2022, FY2023, FY2024 ex one-offs: 34.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 4.4, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
What is the PEG ratio of VMC?
The PEG ratio of Vulcan Materials Company is 1.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vulcan Materials Company (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VMC from its 52-week high?
Vulcan Materials Company trades at $285.51, about 13% below its 52-week high of $328.48 and 19% above the low of $240.83 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $132.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vulcan Materials Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, Heidelberg Materials AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vulcan Materials Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $285.51, calculated fair value $132.92 (−53%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VMC calculated?
We run Vulcan Materials Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $132.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Vulcan Materials Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $285.51. Our model-based fair value is $132.92, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vulcan Materials Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($176.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($82.89 to $176.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) come from?
Earnings per share at Vulcan Materials Company grew +15.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Vulcan Materials Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The market capitalisation of Vulcan Materials Company is $37.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vulcan Materials Company is 4.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Earnings per share at Vulcan Materials Company are $8.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The dividend yield of Vulcan Materials Company is 0.7% (payout 24.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The net margin of Vulcan Materials Company is 13.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vulcan Materials Company is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vulcan Materials Company is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
The operating margin of Vulcan Materials Company is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Revenue at Vulcan Materials Company is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)?
Earnings per share at Vulcan Materials Company are growing −0.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) carry?
The net debt of Vulcan Materials Company is $5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026