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Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vertex Minerals Ltd stock A$0.05, price A$0.09, that is 48.6% below the price, quality 20 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000185910

VM Vertex Minerals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Vertex Minerals Ltd

VTX · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 49% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +1349.5 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0468 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 20/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3900 A$0.0760 Fair Value A$0.0468 Jan 2022 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

58‑month range A$0.0760 – A$0.3900 · fair‑value band A$0.0395 – A$0.0614 · the A$0.0910 price screens above the A$0.0468 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Vertex Minerals Limited engages in exploration, development, and advancement of mineral projects in Australia. It explores for gold, lithium, and nickel.

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The company's flagship project is the Hill End Gold Project comprises of five exploration licences, one gold lease, and ten mining leases covering an area of 155 square kilometers located in the Central Tablelands of New South Wales.

Vertex Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Hill End, Australia.

Stock analysis

Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX) currently trades at A$0.0910, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0468, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0395 (bear) to A$0.0614 (bull), the price of A$0.0910 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Vertex Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$4.2M in FY2026 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$16.4M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$26.1M (≈ $18.0M) Micro · P/S ratio 6.40 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0600 · Return on equity −89.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −129% · Revenue (TTM) A$4.2M · Revenue growth (YoY) +995%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −49%, VTX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0395 Fair Value A$0.0468 Bull A$0.0614
Price A$0.0910 · Downside -48.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0700 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0700 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 46
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 46
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 1
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VTX screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 205 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −48.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −34.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −128.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 994.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 6.15× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $191.57 $220.07 +15% vs VTX
Newmont Corporation NEM $120.91 $133.00 +10% vs VTX
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $92.99 $88.58 −5% vs VTX
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $265.81 $248.53 −7% vs VTX
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥26.20 ¥23.61 −10% vs VTX
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $254.95 $212.28 −17% vs VTX
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.24 $18.00 −19% vs VTX
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$25.85 A$16.87 −35% vs VTX
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $136.31 $87.64 −36% vs VTX
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.28 ¥15.62 −45% vs VTX

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Vertex Minerals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vertex Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VTX

Frequently asked questions

Is Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0468 versus a price of A$0.0910, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VTX?
Our model-based fair value for Vertex Minerals Ltd is A$0.0468 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0910.
What is the quality score of VTX?
Vertex Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0468 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0395, optimistic scenario A$0.0614. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vertex Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0468, about 49% lower versus a price of A$0.0910 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0395, optimistic scenario A$0.0614. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
Vertex Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$4.2M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vertex Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0468 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.0910. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Vertex Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, VTX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0910, fair value A$0.0468, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0910); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0468). For Vertex Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0442 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vertex Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Vertex Minerals Ltd at about A$26.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0910; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0468 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VTX?
Our models span a range for Vertex Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0395, base A$0.0468, optimistic A$0.0614 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.0910). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vertex Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −89.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VTX from its 52-week high?
Vertex Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0910, about 66% below its 52-week high of A$0.2700 and 7% above the low of A$0.0850 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0468 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vertex Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vertex Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.0910, calculated fair value A$0.0468 (−49%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VTX calculated?
We run Vertex Minerals Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0468 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Vertex Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0910. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0468, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vertex Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0614). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Vertex Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
The market capitalisation of Vertex Minerals Ltd is A$26.1M (≈ $18.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vertex Minerals Ltd is 6.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
Earnings per share at Vertex Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vertex Minerals Ltd is −89.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vertex Minerals Ltd is −12.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
The operating margin of Vertex Minerals Ltd is −129% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX)?
Revenue at Vertex Minerals Ltd is growing +995% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX) generate?
The free cash flow of Vertex Minerals Ltd is −A$20.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vertex Minerals Ltd (VTX) carry?
The net debt of Vertex Minerals Ltd is A$17.8M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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