Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Weyerhaeuser Company stock $7.65, price $20.98, that is 63.5% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.47 – $36.15 · fair‑value band $5.73 – $10.66 · the $20.98 price screens above the $7.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Weyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900. Today the firm owns or controls more than 10 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada.
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Weyerhaeuser has been a global leader in sustainability for more than a century and manages 100 percent of its timberlands on a fully sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized sustainable forestry standards.
Weyerhaeuser is also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America and operates additional business lines around product distribution, climate solutions, real estate, energy and natural resources, among others.
In 2025, the company generated 6.9 billion US dollars in net sales and employed approximately 9,500 people who serve customers worldwide.
Operated as a real estate investment trust, Weyerhaeuser's common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY. Weyerhaeuser Company was incorporated in 1900 in Washington and is based in Seattle, United States.
Stock analysis
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) currently trades at $20.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.65, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $9.70 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $20.98 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.30, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.73 (bear) to $10.66 (bull), the price of $20.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Weyerhaeuser Company reported revenue of $6.9B in FY2025 versus $10.2B in FY2021, a compound −9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $324M in FY2025, compounding −40.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.1B Large · P/E ratio 33.3 · P/S ratio 2.17 · EPS (TTM) $0.6300 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −64%, WY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.73Fair Value $7.65Bull$10.66
Price $20.98 · Downside -63.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyJames Calvin O'RourkeDirector4,000 shares at $25.35$101,400Feb 20, 2026
BuyRichard BeckwittDirector20,000 shares at $25.70$514,000Feb 19, 2026
SaleBrian K ChaneySenior Vice President11,157 shares at $25.82$288,074Feb 3, 2026
BuySara Grootwassink LewisDirector4,500 shares at $23.61$106,245Dec 17, 2025
SaleDevin W StockfishPresident and CEO, Director90,162 shares at $23.33$2.1MDec 15, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27.7% vs −10.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +53.1% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale in timberland assets gives Weyerhaeuser a broad resource base, yet commodity exposure and low ROE with weak FCF conversion restrict any lasting competitive edge.
Main risk: Elevated net debt to EBITDA ratios around 4.8x to 5x with a negative S&P outlook could constrain financial flexibility or raise refinancing costs amid weak EBITDA from low log and wood product prices.
Weyerhaeuser just gained U.S. commercialization and distribution rights for TimberHP wood fiber insulation products through its new partnership, extending reach into energy-efficient building materials made from wood residuals. The move pairs the company's established sales network with sustainable insulation demand, yet timberlands and wood products stay exposed to housing cycles and commodity prices. Will the new channel create real margin expansion or stay a modest add-on to the existing business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Specialty · 29 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−63.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Weyerhaeuser Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WY
Frequently asked questions
Is Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.65 versus a price of $20.98, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WY?
Our model-based fair value for Weyerhaeuser Company is $7.65 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.98.
What is the quality score of WY?
Weyerhaeuser Company has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.65 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.73, optimistic scenario $10.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Weyerhaeuser Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.65, about 64% lower versus a price of $20.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.73, optimistic scenario $10.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Weyerhaeuser Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Weyerhaeuser Company pay a dividend?
Weyerhaeuser Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Weyerhaeuser Company pays a dividend of $0.84 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1980. The payout ratio is 133% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.15 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Weyerhaeuser Company would have to grow free cash flow by +56.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WY use?
Our models discount Weyerhaeuser Company at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Weyerhaeuser Company that is +56.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Weyerhaeuser Company grew -1.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +56.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Weyerhaeuser Company (+56.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.58 %: that much free cash flow Weyerhaeuser Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Weyerhaeuser Company it is $7.65 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $20.98. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Weyerhaeuser Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, WY trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.98, fair value $7.65, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.65). For Weyerhaeuser Company the two are $13.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Weyerhaeuser Company worth?
The market values Weyerhaeuser Company at about $15.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $20.98; our models calculate a fair value of $7.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WY?
Our models span a range for Weyerhaeuser Company: cautious scenario $5.73, base $7.65, optimistic $10.66 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $20.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WY?
Weyerhaeuser Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.65 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 29.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.6, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 28.9.
What is the PEG ratio of WY?
The PEG ratio of Weyerhaeuser Company is 1.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Weyerhaeuser Company (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WY from its 52-week high?
Weyerhaeuser Company trades at $20.98, about 21% below its 52-week high of $26.40 and 14% above the low of $18.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Weyerhaeuser Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Equinix, Inc, American Tower Corporation, Digital Realty Trust, Inc, Crown Castle Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Weyerhaeuser Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $20.98, calculated fair value $7.65 (−64%), Quality Score 49/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WY calculated?
We run Weyerhaeuser Company through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $7.65 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Weyerhaeuser Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $20.98. Our model-based fair value is $7.65, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Weyerhaeuser Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($5.73 to $10.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) come from?
Earnings per share at Weyerhaeuser Company grew −10.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Weyerhaeuser Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The market capitalisation of Weyerhaeuser Company is $15.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Weyerhaeuser Company is 2.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Earnings per share at Weyerhaeuser Company are $0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The dividend yield of Weyerhaeuser Company is 4.0% (payout 133%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The net margin of Weyerhaeuser Company is 6.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Weyerhaeuser Company is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Weyerhaeuser Company is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
The operating margin of Weyerhaeuser Company is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Revenue at Weyerhaeuser Company is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)?
Earnings per share at Weyerhaeuser Company are growing −27.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) carry?
The net debt of Weyerhaeuser Company is $5.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 58.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026