YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of YPF Sociedad Anonima stock $46.78, price $38.66, upside +21.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.91 – $57.61 · fair‑value band $40.86 – $52.06 · the $38.66 price screens below the $46.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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YPF, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments.
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It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products.
The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke.
In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities.
The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Stock analysis
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) currently trades at $38.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.78, implying the stock looks roughly 17% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.28 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $38.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.66, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $40.86 (bear) to $52.06 (bull), the price of $38.66 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
YPF Sociedad Anonima reported revenue of 26.5T ARS in FY2025 versus 1.3T ARS in FY2021, a compound +111.9%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2T ARS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $15.2B Large · EPS (TTM) $−1.04 · Net margin −1.8% · Return on equity −2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 19.0% · Revenue (TTM) 25.3T ARS · Revenue growth (YoY) +42.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 21%, YPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$40.86Fair Value $46.78Bull$52.06
Price $38.66 · Upside +21.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV$20.42$23.37$25.9474
ROIC Compounder$20.42$23.37$26.0170
EV/EBITDA$27.63$45.00$62.3766
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV$20.42$23.37$25.9474
Multiples
EV/EBIT$4.81$14.57$24.3360
EV/EBITDA$27.63$45.00$62.3766
EV/Revenue$11.05$26.28$41.5150
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$12.43$16.66$24.8754
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$20.42$23.37$26.0170
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors bought shares worth $893,462, most recently on Jul 26, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $164,780. Buying cluster
SaleGuillermo Alberto FrancosDirector2,770 shares at $55.76$154,455Sep 14, 2026
BuyGuillermo Alberto FrancosDirector6,930 shares at $51.42$356,341Jul 26, 2026
BuyMatias Osvaldo FarinaVP Upstream8,875 shares at $45.22$401,296Jul 2, 2026
BuyHoracio Daniel MarinChairman of the Board/ CEO, Director2,840 shares at $46.35$131,634Jul 2, 2026
SaleMartin MaquieyraDirector218 shares at $47.36$10,324Jun 29, 2026
BuyMartin MaquieyraDirector77 shares at $54.44$4,192May 29, 2026
SaleMarcelo Gustavo AldecoLabor Relations VP12,719 shares at $43.61$554,676Mar 19, 2026
Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+119.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+107.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +67.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.4% (2020) → 8.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Integrated operations with power generation add some stability, yet government control and negative free cash flow limit durable advantage.
Main risk: A moderate global energy transition could render part of YPF's investment pipeline unprofitable, hitting returns on shale and conventional assets.
Bull case: By leveraging its scale, power assets for AI data centers and LNG exports, YPF could offset transition pressures through diversified revenues and efficiency gains.
Bear case: If transition accelerates and efficient rivals gain share, YPF might face persistent low returns on its core upstream assets and struggle with capital demands for LNG.
YPF is taking full ownership of its electricity subsidiary YPF Luz. This step tightens control over power generation and renewables that already supply a tenth of Argentina's electricity. At the same time the company juggles debt reduction and a major LNG export push from Vaca Muerta shale. Does the power business add more stable cash flows than it adds to capital demands?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+21.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)42.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Is YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.78 versus a price of $38.66, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YPF?
Our model-based fair value for YPF Sociedad Anonima is $46.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.66.
What is the quality score of YPF?
YPF Sociedad Anonima has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.86, optimistic scenario $52.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the YPF Sociedad Anonima stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.78, about +21% upside versus a price of $38.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $40.86, optimistic scenario $52.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
YPF Sociedad Anonima reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.3T ARS (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For YPF Sociedad Anonima it is $46.78 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $38.66. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is YPF Sociedad Anonima stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, YPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $38.66, fair value $46.78, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.78). For YPF Sociedad Anonima the two are $8.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is YPF Sociedad Anonima worth?
The market values YPF Sociedad Anonima at about $15.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $38.66; our models calculate a fair value of $46.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YPF?
Our models span a range for YPF Sociedad Anonima: cautious scenario $40.86, base $46.78, optimistic $52.06 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $38.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of YPF?
The PEG ratio of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 0.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for YPF Sociedad Anonima (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −2.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YPF from its 52-week high?
YPF Sociedad Anonima trades at $38.66, about 33% below its 52-week high of $57.61 and 18% above the low of $32.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $46.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to YPF Sociedad Anonima?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is YPF Sociedad Anonima stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $38.66, calculated fair value $46.78 (+21%), Quality Score 35/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YPF calculated?
We run YPF Sociedad Anonima through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $46.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. YPF Sociedad Anonima currently trades 17% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $38.66. Our model-based fair value is $46.78, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with YPF Sociedad Anonima right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($40.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of YPF Sociedad Anonima
How large is the market capitalisation of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The market capitalisation of YPF Sociedad Anonima is $15.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Earnings per share at YPF Sociedad Anonima are $−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The net margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima is −1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of YPF Sociedad Anonima is −2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The operating margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Revenue at YPF Sociedad Anonima is growing +42.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +119%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Earnings per share at YPF Sociedad Anonima are growing −86.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) generate?
The free cash flow of YPF Sociedad Anonima is −171B ARS (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) carry?
The net debt of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 14.8T ARS (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
