YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of YPF Sociedad Anonima $50.56, price $53.93, upside -6.3%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.91 – $57.61 · fair‑value band $44.16 – $56.26 · the $53.93 price screens above the $50.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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YPF, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments.
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YPF, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Stock analysis
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) currently trades at $53.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.56, implying the stock looks roughly 6.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $56.01 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $53.93 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.35, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $44.16 (bear) to $56.26 (bull), the price of $53.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
YPF Sociedad Anonima reported revenue of 26.5T ARS in FY2025 versus 1.3T ARS in FY2021, a compound +111.9%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2T ARS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $21.1B · EPS (TTM) $−1.04 · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 19.0% · Revenue (TTM) 25.3T ARS · Revenue growth (YoY) +42.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −6%, YPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $44.16Fair Value $50.56Bull $56.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+119.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+107.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +67.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.4% (2020) → 8.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Is YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $50.56 versus a price of $53.93, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of YPF?
Our model-based fair value for YPF Sociedad Anonima is $50.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.93.
What is the quality score of YPF?
YPF Sociedad Anonima has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $50.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.16, optimistic scenario $56.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the YPF Sociedad Anonima stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $50.56, about −6% upside versus a price of $53.93 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $44.16, optimistic scenario $56.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
YPF Sociedad Anonima reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.3T ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For YPF Sociedad Anonima it is $50.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $53.93. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is YPF Sociedad Anonima stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, YPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $53.93, fair value $50.56, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($50.56). For YPF Sociedad Anonima the two are $3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is YPF Sociedad Anonima worth?
The market values YPF Sociedad Anonima at about $21.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $53.93; our models calculate a fair value of $50.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YPF?
Our models span a range for YPF Sociedad Anonima: cautious scenario $44.16, base $50.56, optimistic $56.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $53.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of YPF?
The PEG ratio of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 0.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for YPF Sociedad Anonima (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YPF from its 52-week high?
YPF Sociedad Anonima trades at $53.93, about 6% below its 52-week high of $57.61 and 129% above the low of $23.57 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $50.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to YPF Sociedad Anonima?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is YPF Sociedad Anonima stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $53.93, calculated fair value $50.56 (−6%), Quality Score 35/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YPF calculated?
We run YPF Sociedad Anonima through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $50.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. YPF Sociedad Anonima itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $53.93. Our model-based fair value is $50.56, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with YPF Sociedad Anonima right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of YPF Sociedad Anonima
How large is the market capitalisation of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The market capitalisation of YPF Sociedad Anonima is $21.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Earnings per share at YPF Sociedad Anonima are $−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The net margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of YPF Sociedad Anonima is −2.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
The operating margin of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Revenue at YPF Sociedad Anonima is growing +42.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +119%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?
Earnings per share at YPF Sociedad Anonima are growing −86.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) generate?
The free cash flow of YPF Sociedad Anonima is −171B ARS (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) carry?
The net debt of YPF Sociedad Anonima is 14.8T ARS (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026