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Grandjoy Holdings (000031) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · CN · Market cap 10.5B CNY

GH Grandjoy Holdings 000031 · SHE
Price¥2.19
Fair Value¥1.68
Upside-23.5%
Quality48/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -7.0% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 22/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥1.10 – ¥2.25 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from ¥1.67 to ¥1.68 (+0.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 23% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥1.10 to ¥2.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥5.13 ¥2.06 Fair Value ¥1.68 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.06 – ¥5.13 · fair‑value band ¥1.10 – ¥2.25 · the ¥2.19 price screens above the ¥1.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Grandjoy Holdings (000031) currently trades at ¥2.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.68, implying the stock looks roughly 23.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Grandjoy Holdings generated revenue of 33.3B CNY at a net margin of -7.0%. Revenue grew 46.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.8%. Net debt stands at 31.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.10 (bear case) to ¥2.25 (bull case); at ¥2.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -23%, 000031 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥0.9900 ¥9.10 ¥22.10 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.58 ¥13.45 ¥27.42 74
EV/EBITDA ¥13.48 ¥20.19 ¥26.91 54
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.23 ¥7.73 ¥24.43 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.58 ¥14.00 ¥29.19 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥9.22 ¥26.67 ¥50.36 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.38 ¥12.35 ¥29.63 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.68 ¥22.11 ¥49.12 37
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥13.22 ¥19.85 ¥26.47 53
EV/EBITDA ¥13.48 ¥20.19 ¥26.91 54
EV/Revenue ¥4.30 ¥9.00 ¥13.70 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.20 ¥1.61 ¥2.40 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥0.9900 ¥9.10 ¥22.10 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.58 ¥13.45 ¥27.42 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (¥19.85) versus Asset-Based (¥1.61). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 33.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +46.7%
Net margin -7.0%
Return on equity -5.8%
Free cash flow 2.3B CNY FY2025
Operating margin 13.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.5400
EPS growth (YoY) -99.2%
Net debt 31.0B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Grandjoy Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the real estate development, operation, and sale of residential and commercial properties in China and internationally. It offers residential, commercial properties, industrial properties, as well as hotel operations. The company was formerly known as COFCO Property Group Co., Ltd.

Full company description

Grandjoy Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the real estate development, operation, and sale of residential and commercial properties in China and internationally. It offers residential, commercial properties, industrial properties, as well as hotel operations. The company was formerly known as COFCO Property Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Grandjoy Holdings Group Co., Ltd. in March 2019. Grandjoy Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1983 and is based in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grandjoy Holdings reported revenue of ¥30.9B in FY2025 versus ¥42.6B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −¥2.4B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 18/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
30.9B CNY
Latest YoY
−13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (34Y)
+17.8%
Revenue −7.7%/yr
FY21 ¥42.6B
FY22 ¥39.6B
FY23 ¥36.8B
FY24 ¥35.8B
FY25 ¥30.9B
Net income
FY21 ¥108M
FY22 −¥2.9B
FY23 −¥1.5B
FY24 −¥3.0B
FY25 −¥2.4B

000031 screens 23% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grandjoy Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000031

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside −23% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 47% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 4.73× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 43.65× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 2 · sector 48
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 10
HEALTH 0 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,100 IDR 6,239 IDR +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grandjoy Holdings (000031) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.68 versus a price of ¥2.19, about −23% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000031?
Our model-based fair value for Grandjoy Holdings is ¥1.68 (as of Jul 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥2.19.
What is the quality score of 000031?
Grandjoy Holdings has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grandjoy Holdings (000031)?
Grandjoy Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 33.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000031?
The net profit margin of Grandjoy Holdings is about -7.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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