ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd stock ¥11.38, price ¥14.10, that is 19.3% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.06 – ¥24.19 · fair‑value band ¥8.54 – ¥15.31 · the ¥14.10 price screens above the ¥11.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd engages in the real estate and breeding businesses in China.
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The company is involved in pig breeding and sales; feed production and sales; breeding and sales of breeder chickens and broiler chickens; research and development, production, and sales of pig feed, chicken feed, and aquatic feed; breeding of fine breeds; pig slaughtering; and meat product packaging, refrigeration and transportation.
It also provides real estate development, property leasing, and smart community services. The company was formerly known as Shenzhen Kondarl (Group) Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd in April 2020.
The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) currently trades at ¥14.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.38, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥11.16 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥14.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.68, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥8.54 (bear) to ¥15.31 (bull), the price of ¥14.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2019: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2019.
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was 153M CNY in FY2025, compounding −20.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B) Small · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.09 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin −12.2% · Return on equity −14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −27.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −19%, 000048 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥8.54Fair Value ¥11.38Bull¥15.31
Price ¥14.10 · Downside -19.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥8.14¥12.65¥19.0377
Growth DCF¥8.05¥12.05¥17.3776
EPV¥3.87¥4.36¥4.7574
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥8.14¥12.65¥19.0377
Owner Earnings¥4.35¥6.74¥10.1473
5Y Revenue Exit¥6.50¥10.25¥15.1370
5Y EBITDA Exit¥11.89¥21.04¥32.3371
5Y P/E Exit¥5.73¥8.71¥11.9469
10Y Revenue Exit¥6.93¥10.38¥15.2764
10Y EBITDA Exit¥10.17¥17.21¥27.5565
10Y P/E Exit¥6.63¥9.41¥13.0062
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥1.96¥8.25¥11.2562
Lynch FV¥2.09¥2.99¥3.8959
PEG = 1.0¥2.09¥2.99¥3.8955
EPV¥3.87¥4.36¥4.7574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥6.13¥10.53¥13.9566
DDM Multi-Stage¥6.13¥9.86¥11.3065
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥4.54¥6.05¥7.5763
P/S Multiple¥3.67¥4.90¥6.1258
P/B Multiple¥14.34¥19.12¥23.9155
EV/EBIT¥6.77¥9.37¥11.9766
EV/EBITDA¥14.94¥20.26¥25.5867
EV/Revenue¥4.54¥6.92¥9.3153
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥3.81¥5.11¥7.6254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥8.05¥12.05¥17.3776
Rev-Margin DCF¥6.50¥10.26¥14.9970
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥5.19¥5.15¥5.2874
ROIC Compounder¥3.87¥4.36¥4.7570
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥3.55¥5.08¥6.6065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2019: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2019.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−26.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Per share before 2019divided by the spin-off factor 1.03
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29.5% vs 3.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.2% a year for the price.
Compare ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 291 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−17.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−12.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−27.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−26.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.58× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.6× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000048
Frequently asked questions
Is ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.38 versus a price of ¥14.10, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000048?
Our model-based fair value for ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is ¥11.38 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥14.10.
What is the quality score of 000048?
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.38 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.54, optimistic scenario ¥15.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.38, about 19% lower versus a price of ¥14.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.54, optimistic scenario ¥15.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) and when is the ex-dividend date?
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.38 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 17, 2025. A dividend has been paid every year since 2020. The payout ratio is 132% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.95 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.7 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000048 use?
Our models discount ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd that is +14.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd grew +3.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (+14.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.26 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd it is ¥11.38 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥14.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 000048 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥14.10, fair value ¥11.38, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000048?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥14.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.38). For ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd the two are ¥2.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd at about 7.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥14.10; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000048?
Our models span a range for ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥8.54, base ¥11.38, optimistic ¥15.31 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥14.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
Balance-sheet figures for ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −14.3%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000048 from its 52-week high?
ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd trades at ¥14.10, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥24.19 and 12% above the low of ¥12.54 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥14.10, calculated fair value ¥11.38 (−19%), Quality Score 42/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000048 calculated?
We run ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥11.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥14.10. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.38, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd right now?
Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) come from?
Earnings per share at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd grew +25.4 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.6 %, EBIT margin +8.6 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The market capitalisation of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is 1.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
Earnings per share at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd are ¥−1.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The dividend yield of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is 2.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The net margin of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is −12.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is −14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
The operating margin of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is −27.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
Revenue at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is growing −26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048)?
Earnings per share at ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd are growing −80.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd (000048) carry?
The net debt of ShenZhen Kondarl Group Co Ltd is 547M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026