Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A stock ¥25.85, price ¥20.11, upside +28.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 22% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value ¥25.85 · Undervalued (22%)
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +3.3 %/yr in CNY)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
4.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
Ranks above peers(10/15)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Quality 56/100
Thin margins · 5.2% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat44/100 · thin data
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩HDT electrification could cut diesel engine sales🚩US tariffs or Section 301 probes could hit exports🚩Global rivals like Cummins and Caterpillar could erode share
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.74 – ¥34.07 · fair‑value band ¥18.09 – ¥33.60 · the ¥20.11 price screens below the ¥25.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Weichai Power Co., Ltd. engages in the automobile and equipment manufacturing industry in China and internationally. The company operates through the Engines, Automobiles and Auto Parts, Agricultural Equipment, and Intelligent Logistics segments.
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It offers engines for trucks, buses, construction machinery, and agricultural tractors and harvesters; energy and power solutions, including generator sets and industrial power products; transmission, PTO, and auto transmission products; axles for trucks, buses, and construction machineries; and hydraulics comprising variable displacement pumps, VT modular valves, electronic units, and excavator and agriculture machine powertrain systems.
The company also provides new energy products, such as pure electric drive, pure electric gearbox power, electric drive axle power, hybrid power, power battery, and range-extender systems; commercial vehicles and auto parts; and after-market products, which include parts, oil, and remanufacture.
In addition, it engages in forklift production, warehouse technology, and supply chain solution services, as well as industrial truck and services materials handling.
The company offers its products under the Weichai Power Engine, Fast Gear Transmission, Hande Axle, Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Truck, and Weichai Lovol Smart Agriculture brands. Weichai Power Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Weifang, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) currently trades at ¥20.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥25.85, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥40.09 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥20.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.53, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥18.09 (bear) to ¥33.60 (bull), the price of ¥20.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 232B CNY in FY2025 versus 220B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was 10.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 174B CNY (≈ $26.1B) Large · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.46 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 29%, 000338 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥18.09Fair Value ¥25.85Bull¥33.60
Price ¥20.11 · Upside +28.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4833 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.0% vs 15.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.2% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (39 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from surging sales in data-center power systems for AI infrastructure as its main strength, offset by thin evidence of a durable moat and limited governance transparency as the key weakness.
Main risk: China's shift to electric heavy-duty trucks could structurally reduce demand for Weichai's core diesel engines and powertrains over the coming years.
Bull case: Weichai could leverage its data-center genset momentum and SOFC development to offset any HDT electrification slowdown by expanding into prime power and alternative energy solutions.
Bear case: If HDT electrification accelerates and export barriers rise, Weichai's traditional engine volumes could decline sharply while new segments fail to scale fast enough to maintain overall growth.
Weichai Power's core heavy-duty truck engines face a cyclical slowdown, yet high-value products like data-center power systems are surging with sales nearly doubling year over year and already hitting record quarterly adjusted profits. This shift toward power generation for AI infrastructure creates a clearer path to sustained growth beyond traditional auto manufacturing. Does the new segment expand quickly enough to lift overall results, or does the truck cycle remain the dominant force?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+28.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000338
Frequently asked questions
Is Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥25.85 versus a price of ¥20.11, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000338?
Our model-based fair value for Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is ¥25.85 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥20.11.
What is the quality score of 000338?
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥25.85 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥18.09, optimistic scenario ¥33.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥25.85, about +29% upside versus a price of ¥20.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥18.09, optimistic scenario ¥33.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 242B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of 4.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by -12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000338 use?
Our models discount Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.65, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A that is -12.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies -12.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (-12.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.02 %: that much free cash flow Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A it is ¥25.85 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥20.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 000338 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥20.11, fair value ¥25.85, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000338?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥20.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥25.85). For Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥5.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A at about 174B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥20.11; our models calculate a fair value of ¥25.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000338?
Our models span a range for Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥18.09, base ¥25.85, optimistic ¥33.60 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥20.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000338?
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥25.85 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.9 (reported for FY2025: 16.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 13.6. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 000338?
The PEG ratio of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 4.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Balance-sheet figures for Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000338 from its 52-week high?
Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥20.11, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥34.07 and 27% above the low of ¥15.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥25.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥20.11, calculated fair value ¥25.85 (+29%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000338 calculated?
We run Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥25.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥20.11. Our model-based fair value is ¥25.85, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A right now?
Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥18.09 to ¥33.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) come from?
Earnings per share at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A grew +14.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The market capitalisation of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 174B CNY (≈ $26.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 0.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Earnings per share at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A are ¥1.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The dividend yield of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 4.4% (payout 68.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 61.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The net margin of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 5.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
The operating margin of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Revenue at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338)?
Earnings per share at Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A are growing −9.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A (000338) carry?
The net debt of Weichai Power Co Ltd Class A is 28.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026