Caissa Tourism Group (000796) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 7.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 15, 2026, revised from ¥0.3000 to ¥2.02 (+573.3%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.76 – ¥12.49 · fair‑value band ¥1.48 – ¥2.49 · the ¥3.83 price screens above the ¥2.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Caissa Tourism Group (000796) currently trades at ¥3.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.02, implying the stock looks roughly 47.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Caissa Tourism Group generated revenue of 855M CNY at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 39.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 555M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.48 (bear case) to ¥2.49 (bull case); at ¥3.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -47%, 000796 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥0.5300) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.1600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. engages in outbound tourism, and air and rail catering industries in China and internationally. The company operates through Tourism Business, Catering and Food and Beverage Business Division, and Destination Business segments.
Full company description
Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. engages in outbound tourism, and air and rail catering industries in China and internationally. The company operates through Tourism Business, Catering and Food and Beverage Business Division, and Destination Business segments. It offers outbound, inbound, and domestic tourism, as well as group tours, customized tours, free travel and cruise tours, airline ticketing, inbound reception, tourist passenger transport, corporate travel, and other services to governments, enterprises, and individuals under Caissa Travel brand. The company also provides airline catering, railway catering, and cruise catering, ship supply, social group catering and leisure food, and other fields under the Caesar Easy Food brand. In addition, it operates Caesars Bay, a destination management platform. The company was formerly known as Caissa Tosun Development Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. in December 2019. Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is based in Sanya, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caissa Tourism Group reported revenue of ¥799M in FY2025 versus ¥940M in FY2021, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥28.0M in FY2025.
000796 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Booking Holdings →
Peer Group
Travel Services · 92 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $212.26 | $152.94 | -28% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $180.10 | $85.66 | -52% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $307.15 | $215.19 | -30% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $104.19 | $43.68 | -58% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $27.67 | $31.36 | +13% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $325.57 | $248.63 | -24% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $45.58 | $89.04 | +95% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $18.92 | $20.28 | +7% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.44 | $5.04 | -47% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $74.68 | $26.57 | -64% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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