Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd stock ¥0.36, price ¥3.27, upside -89.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.76 – ¥12.49 · fair‑value band ¥0.2800 – ¥0.4700 · the ¥3.27 price screens above the ¥0.3600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
Follow Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. engages in outbound tourism, and air and rail catering industries in China and internationally. The company operates through Tourism Business, Catering and Food and Beverage Business Division, and Destination Business segments.
Show moreShow less
It offers outbound, inbound, and domestic tourism, as well as group tours, customized tours, free travel and cruise tours, airline ticketing, inbound reception, tourist passenger transport, corporate travel, and other services to governments, enterprises, and individuals under Caissa Travel brand.
The company also provides airline catering, railway catering, and cruise catering, ship supply, social group catering and leisure food, and other fields under the Caesar Easy Food brand. In addition, it operates Caesars Bay, a destination management platform.
The company was formerly known as Caissa Tosun Development Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. in December 2019. Caissa Tourism Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1993 and is based in Sanya, China.
Stock analysis
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796) currently trades at ¥3.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.3600, 89.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥0.3800 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the ¥3.27 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.1600, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.2800 (bear) to ¥0.4700 (bull), the price of ¥3.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 799M CNY in FY2025 versus 940M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was 28.0M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.2B CNY (≈ $787M) Small · P/E ratio 109.0 · P/S ratio 5.72 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0300 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, 000796 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1600 to ¥2.18). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥0.2800Fair Value ¥0.3600Bull¥0.4700
Price ¥3.27 · Upside -89.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0246 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −16.6% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−35.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−35.5% vs −23.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−43% → −9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 24.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)109.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.84× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.72× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.60× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000796
Frequently asked questions
Is Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.3600 versus a price of ¥3.27, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000796?
Our model-based fair value for Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is ¥0.3600 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.27.
What is the quality score of 000796?
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.3600 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.2800, optimistic scenario ¥0.4700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.3600, about −89% upside versus a price of ¥3.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.2800, optimistic scenario ¥0.4700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 917M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd it is ¥0.3600 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥3.27. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 000796 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.27, fair value ¥0.3600, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000796?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.3600). For Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd the two are ¥2.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd at about 5.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.27; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.3600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000796?
Our models span a range for Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.2800, base ¥0.3600, optimistic ¥0.4700 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥3.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000796?
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 109.0 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.3600 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 5.8, P/S 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 000796?
The PEG ratio of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 26, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000796 from its 52-week high?
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd trades at ¥3.27, about 60% below its 52-week high of ¥8.17 and 2% above the low of ¥3.21 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.3600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥3.27, calculated fair value ¥0.3600 (−89%), Quality Score 49/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000796 calculated?
We run Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.3600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥3.27. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.3600, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.4700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The market capitalisation of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is 5.2B CNY (≈ $787M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is 5.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Earnings per share at Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd are ¥0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 109.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The dividend yield of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is 0.1% (payout 10.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The net margin of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is −9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
The operating margin of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is −11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Revenue at Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is growing +35.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796)?
Earnings per share at Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd are growing −33.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796) generate?
The free cash flow of Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd is −130M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd (000796) hold?
Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 555M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Hna-Caissa Travel Group Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 26, 2026