Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd ¥2.66, price ¥4.71, upside -43.5%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.24 – ¥8.16 · fair‑value band ¥1.99 – ¥3.32 · the ¥4.71 price screens above the ¥2.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hainan Expressway Co., Ltd. engages in the transportation, real estate development, cultural tourism, and other businesses in China.
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Hainan Expressway Co., Ltd. engages in the transportation, real estate development, cultural tourism, and other businesses in China. It is involved in the sale of transportation building materials, deep-sea aquaculture products, and real estate properties; investment, construction, operation, and maintenance of expressways; and construction project management, digital economy, hotel, property, advertising, and cultural and sports tourism businesses. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Haikou, China.
Stock analysis
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886) currently trades at ¥4.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.66, implying the stock looks roughly 77.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥2.66 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the ¥4.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.17, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.99 (bear) to ¥3.32 (bull), the price of ¥4.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd reported revenue of 657M CNY in FY2025 versus 127M CNY in FY2021, a compound +50.9%/yr. Reported net income was 155M CNY in FY2025, compounding +31.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.7B CNY (≈ $695M) · P/E ratio 31.4 · P/S ratio 7.39 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1500 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 23.5% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −44%, 000886 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.99Fair Value ¥2.66Bull ¥3.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1097 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+182.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 11%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.119% → −12%
2025 sits 70% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Hainan Expressway Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth153% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)31.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.25× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hainan Expressway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000886
Frequently asked questions
Is Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.66 versus a price of ¥4.71, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000886?
Our model-based fair value for Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is ¥2.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.71.
What is the quality score of 000886?
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.99, optimistic scenario ¥3.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hainan Expressway Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.66, about −44% upside versus a price of ¥4.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.99, optimistic scenario ¥3.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 745M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hainan Expressway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hainan Expressway Co Ltd it is ¥2.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥4.71. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hainan Expressway Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000886 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.71, fair value ¥2.66, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000886?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.66). For Hainan Expressway Co Ltd the two are ¥2.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hainan Expressway Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hainan Expressway Co Ltd at about 4.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.71; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000886?
Our models span a range for Hainan Expressway Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.99, base ¥2.66, optimistic ¥3.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥4.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000886?
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000886 from its 52-week high?
Hainan Expressway Co Ltd trades at ¥4.71, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥8.16 and 16% above the low of ¥4.07 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hainan Expressway Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hainan Expressway Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥4.71, calculated fair value ¥2.66 (−44%), Quality Score 50/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000886 calculated?
We run Hainan Expressway Co Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hainan Expressway Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥4.71. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.66, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hainan Expressway Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886) come from?
Earnings per share at Hainan Expressway Co Ltd grew +3.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.3 %, EBIT margin +15.7 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The market capitalisation of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 4.7B CNY (≈ $695M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 7.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Earnings per share at Hainan Expressway Co Ltd are ¥0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The dividend yield of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 9.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The net margin of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 23.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
The operating margin of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is −6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Revenue at Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is growing +153% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886)?
Earnings per share at Hainan Expressway Co Ltd are growing +149% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886) generate?
The free cash flow of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is −270M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hainan Expressway Co Ltd (000886) carry?
The net debt of Hainan Expressway Co Ltd is 116M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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