China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. ¥3.08, price ¥3.51, upside -12.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.35 – ¥8.11 · fair‑value band ¥2.30 – ¥3.66 · the ¥3.51 price screens above the ¥3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. provides special cargo logistics services in China. It offers automotive and cold chain logistic services; and logistics equipment and trains.
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China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. provides special cargo logistics services in China. It offers automotive and cold chain logistic services; and logistics equipment and trains. The company also engages in railway transportation, technical services, and equipment management of long and large cargo, including designing cargo loading and reinforcement plans, and transportation plans; provision of railway transportation technical consultation; and cargo agency transportation. China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213) currently trades at ¥3.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥2.88 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥3.51 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.6500, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.30 (bear) to ¥3.66 (bull), the price of ¥3.51 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 12.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 8.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was 424M CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 15.6B CNY (≈ $2.3B) · P/E ratio 39.0 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0900 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −12%, 001213 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.30Fair Value ¥3.08Bull ¥3.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0256 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Compare China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−12% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001213
Frequently asked questions
Is China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.08 versus a price of ¥3.51, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001213?
Our model-based fair value for China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is ¥3.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.51.
What is the quality score of 001213?
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.30, optimistic scenario ¥3.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.08, about −12% upside versus a price of ¥3.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.30, optimistic scenario ¥3.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. it is ¥3.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥3.51. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 001213 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.51, fair value ¥3.08, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 001213?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.08). For China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. the two are ¥0.4340 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. at about 15.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.51; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 001213?
Our models span a range for China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥2.30, base ¥3.08, optimistic ¥3.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥3.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 001213?
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 001213 from its 52-week high?
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. trades at ¥3.51, about 19% below its 52-week high of ¥4.32 and 5% above the low of ¥3.35 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥3.51, calculated fair value ¥3.08 (−12%), Quality Score 52/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 001213 calculated?
We run China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥3.51. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.08, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The market capitalisation of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 15.6B CNY (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
Earnings per share at China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. are ¥0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The dividend yield of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 1.6% (payout 61.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The net margin of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
The operating margin of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
Revenue at China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213)?
Earnings per share at China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. are growing −25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213) generate?
The free cash flow of China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. is −1.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. (001213) hold?
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co. Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 4.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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