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Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co (001318) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY

JS Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co 001318 · SHE
Price¥11.24
Fair Value¥7.07
Upside-37.1%
Quality67/100
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Weak Growth
Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin
generates free cash flow
2.10% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: High Range ¥5.25 – ¥9.25 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Share price +10.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

¥27.45 ¥9.03 Fair Value ¥7.07 May 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

51‑month range ¥9.03 – ¥27.45 · fair‑value band ¥5.25 – ¥9.25 · the ¥11.24 price screens above the ¥7.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co (001318) currently trades at ¥11.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.07, implying the stock looks roughly 37.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co generated revenue of 470M CNY at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue declined 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 552M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.25 (bear case) to ¥9.25 (bull case); at ¥11.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -37%, 001318 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥4.16 ¥4.37 ¥4.63 76
Growth DCF ¥5.13 ¥6.43 ¥8.59 72
Gordon GGM ¥1.58 ¥1.72 ¥1.94 70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥4.97 ¥6.33 ¥8.76 38
Owner Earnings ¥4.88 ¥6.20 ¥8.57 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.72 ¥4.54 ¥5.72 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.03 ¥6.80 ¥9.14 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥5.74 ¥8.03 ¥10.76 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.16 ¥4.80 ¥5.46 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.98 ¥6.17 ¥7.42 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥5.40 ¥6.91 ¥8.36 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.51 ¥3.07 ¥3.46 54
EPV ¥4.08 ¥4.53 ¥4.91 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.58 ¥1.72 ¥1.94 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.58 ¥1.95 ¥2.46 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.82 ¥7.76 ¥9.70 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.03 ¥2.70 ¥3.38 58
P/B Multiple ¥4.71 ¥6.28 ¥7.85 55
EV/EBIT ¥5.65 ¥7.11 ¥8.57 53
EV/EBITDA ¥5.70 ¥7.18 ¥8.66 54
EV/Revenue ¥3.04 ¥3.80 ¥4.56 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.58 ¥3.46 ¥5.16 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.13 ¥6.43 ¥8.59 72
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.72 ¥4.63 ¥5.77 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.16 ¥4.37 ¥4.63 76
ROIC Compounder ¥4.08 ¥4.53 ¥4.91 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥4.11 ¥5.87 ¥7.63 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (¥6.28) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.72). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 470M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -7.0%
Net margin 21.6%
Return on equity 6.9%
Free cash flow 113M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 31.0
More key figures
Operating margin 18.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.3600
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -13.5%
Net cash 552M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 62
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of liquid milk, milk-containing beverages, and other products in China. It also offers fresh milk series, yogurt series, milk beverage series, functional dairy series, and various other products.

Full company description

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of liquid milk, milk-containing beverages, and other products in China. It also offers fresh milk series, yogurt series, milk beverage series, functional dairy series, and various other products. The company sells its products under the Huahao Ranch, Lake Baikal, Jueda, Ganxianhuo, Pingyanbao, and Yijunbao brands. Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. was founded in 2008 and is based in Nanchang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co reported revenue of ¥477M in FY2025 versus ¥631M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥104M in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
477M CNY
Latest YoY
−8.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.7%
Revenue −6.7%/yr
FY21 ¥631M
FY22 ¥570M
FY23 ¥570M
FY24 ¥519M
FY25 ¥477M
Net income −6.3%/yr
FY21 ¥136M
FY22 ¥111M
FY23 ¥116M
FY24 ¥115M
FY25 ¥104M

001318 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001318

Peer Group

Farm Products · 288 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −37% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 31.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.16× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 6.72× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 22.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 25
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 27 · sector 17
HEALTH 0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 42 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.90 ¥48.19 +18%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.51 ¥12.08 -17%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 188.40 kr 262.59 +39%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,120 IDR 7,076 IDR +127%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.00 THB 55.71 THB +153%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,540 IDR 3,105 IDR +102%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,300 IDR 7,463 IDR +2%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,070 IDR 7,231 IDR +249%
Thaifoods Group TFGR 10.60 THB 23.53 THB +122%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,845 IDR 610.80 IDR -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co (001318) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.07 versus a price of ¥11.24, about −37% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001318?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co is ¥7.07 (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥11.24.
What is the quality score of 001318?
Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co (001318)?
Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 470M CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 001318?
The net profit margin of Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co is about 21.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co pay a dividend?
Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.10% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 21, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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