Great China Holdings (0021) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$270M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.0678 to HK$0.0710 (+4.7%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +39.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0902). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0422 to HK$0.0902) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0500 – HK$0.2490 · fair‑value band HK$0.0422 – HK$0.0902 · the HK$0.1030 price screens above the HK$0.0710 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Great China Holdings (0021) currently trades at HK$0.1030, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0710, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$60.6M. Revenue declined 72.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -23.1%. Net debt stands at HK$1.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0422 (bear case) to HK$0.0902 (bull case); at HK$0.1030, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -31%, 0021 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.1000) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0600). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Great China Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China. The company offers hotel management, financial consultancy, trust management, trading, department stores, and ports and logistics services. It also operates a resort.
Full company description
Great China Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China. The company offers hotel management, financial consultancy, trust management, trading, department stores, and ports and logistics services. It also operates a resort. The company was formerly known as Great China Properties Holdings Limited and changed its name to Great China Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited in July 2022. Great China Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Great China Holdings reported revenue of HK$61.1M in FY2025 versus HK$10.0M in FY2021, a compound +57.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$148M in FY2025.
0021 screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Plaza S.A →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 528 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,989 CLP | 4,571 CLP | +15% |
| PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk SUPR | 43,850 IDR | 15,049 IDR | -66% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,412 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +23% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 392.00 IDR | 1,012 IDR | +158% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 22,000 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -13% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,610 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -4% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 2,990 ARS | +20% |
| PT Plaza Indonesia Realty Tbk PLIN | 2,510 IDR | 2,698 IDR | +7% |
| PT MNC Tourism Indonesia Tbk, KPIG | 74.00 IDR | 122.12 IDR | +65% |
| PT Indonesian Paradise Property Tbk INPP | 770.00 IDR | 291.52 IDR | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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