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XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd ¥5.95, price ¥12.78, upside -53.4%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100000908

XG Thin data Sep 24, 2026

XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd

002205 · SHE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ¥5.95 · Strongly overvalued (−53%)
!Quality 42/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥18.83 ¥5.77 Fair Value ¥5.95 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.77 – ¥18.83 · fair‑value band ¥3.21 – ¥8.41 · the ¥12.78 price screens above the ¥5.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd engages in the manufacture, transportation, related technical development, and consulting service provision of prestressed concrete cylinder pipes (PCCP) and other concrete products in China.

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XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd engages in the manufacture, transportation, related technical development, and consulting service provision of prestressed concrete cylinder pipes (PCCP) and other concrete products in China. The company offers various water transmission pipes and their pipe fittings, subway pipes, PC components, railway track plates, and wind power towers. Its products are used in water diversion projects, urban tap water, industrial water, water supply and distribution networks of agricultural irrigation systems, and circulating water pipelines of power plants. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Urumqi, China.

Stock analysis

XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205) currently trades at ¥12.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.95, implying the stock looks roughly 114.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥4.93 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the ¥12.78 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.37, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥3.21 (bear) to ¥8.41 (bull), the price of ¥12.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd reported revenue of 678M CNY in FY2024 versus 872M CNY in FY2020, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −249M CNY in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap 2.4B CNY (≈ $354M) · P/S ratio 2.78 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.5000 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin −36.7% · Return on equity −25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% · Operating margin −11.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −53%, 002205 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥3.21 Fair Value ¥5.95 Bull ¥8.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM ¥3.09 ¥5.56 ¥7.66 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.09 ¥4.93 ¥5.94 67
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.03 ¥1.37 ¥2.05 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.09 ¥5.56 ¥7.66 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.09 ¥4.93 ¥5.94 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.03 ¥1.37 ¥2.05 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 88
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+89.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.2% (2019) → −10.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

002205 screens 115% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 253 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 290% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.38× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 18.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)71 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Trane Technologies plc TT $437.09 $214.52 −51%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $145.90 $39.57 −73%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $55.10 $19.18 −65%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €69.82 €93.50 +34%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 539.80 CHF 297.73 −45%
Lennox International Inc LII $372.34 $301.61 −19%
Madison Air Solutions Corporation MAIR $25.05 $27.56 +10%
Kingspan Group KRX €99.40 €68.89 −31%
Masco Corporation MAS $69.96 $55.79 −20%
Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL $323.96 $340.70 +5%

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XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥5.95 −115%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002205

Frequently asked questions

Is XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.95 versus a price of ¥12.78, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002205?
Our model-based fair value for XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is ¥5.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.78.
What is the quality score of 002205?
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.21, optimistic scenario ¥8.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.95, about −53% upside versus a price of ¥12.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.21, optimistic scenario ¥8.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 752M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd pay a dividend?
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd it is ¥5.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥12.78. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002205 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.78, fair value ¥5.95, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002205?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.95). For XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd the two are ¥6.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd worth?
The market values XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd at about 2.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.78; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002205?
Our models span a range for XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.21, base ¥5.95, optimistic ¥8.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥12.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
Balance-sheet figures for XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −25.9%, debt of 3.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002205 from its 52-week high?
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd trades at ¥12.78, about 27% below its 52-week high of ¥17.60 and 43% above the low of ¥8.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥12.78, calculated fair value ¥5.95 (−53%), Quality Score 42/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002205 calculated?
We run XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥12.78. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.95, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥3.21 to ¥8.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The market capitalisation of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is 2.4B CNY (≈ $354M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is 2.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
Earnings per share at XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd are ¥−0.5000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The dividend yield of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is 3.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The net margin of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is −36.7% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is −25.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
The operating margin of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is −11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
Revenue at XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is growing +290% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205)?
Earnings per share at XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd are growing −78.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205) generate?
The free cash flow of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is −27.8M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd (002205) carry?
The net debt of XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline Co Ltd is 2.1B CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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