XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd (002205) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.1B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥9.23 to ¥8.55 (−7.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 19% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥3.87 to ¥14.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.77 – ¥18.83 · fair‑value band ¥3.87 – ¥14.62 · the ¥10.59 price screens above the ¥8.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd (002205) currently trades at ¥10.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.55, implying the stock looks roughly 19.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd generated revenue of 752M CNY at a net margin of -12.4%. Revenue grew 289.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.9%. Net debt stands at 2.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.87 (bear case) to ¥14.62 (bull case); at ¥10.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -19%, 002205 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥5.83) versus Asset-Based (¥1.37). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd engages in the manufacture, transportation, related technical development, and consulting service provision of prestressed concrete cylinder pipes (PCCP) and other concrete products in China.
Full company description
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd engages in the manufacture, transportation, related technical development, and consulting service provision of prestressed concrete cylinder pipes (PCCP) and other concrete products in China. The company offers various water transmission pipes and their pipe fittings, subway pipes, PC components, railway track plates, and wind power towers. Its products are used in water diversion projects, urban tap water, industrial water, water supply and distribution networks of agricultural irrigation systems, and circulating water pipelines of power plants. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Urumqi, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd reported revenue of ¥678M in FY2024 versus ¥872M in FY2020, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥249M in FY2024.
002205 screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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