Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd ¥3.77, price ¥10.42, upside -63.8%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.02 – ¥25.88 · fair‑value band ¥1.79 – ¥5.74 · the ¥10.42 price screens above the ¥3.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd engages in the real estate development business under the Amber brand name in China. The company develops and constructs residential, commercial, and industrial real estate properties; and office buildings.
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Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd engages in the real estate development business under the Amber brand name in China. The company develops and constructs residential, commercial, and industrial real estate properties; and office buildings. It is also engaged in property management and leasing activities, as well as offers construction project management consulting services. Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hefei, China.
Stock analysis
Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208) currently trades at ¥10.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.77, implying the stock looks roughly 176.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥6.34 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥10.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.39, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥1.79 (bear) to ¥5.74 (bull), the price of ¥10.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 7.7B CNY in FY2024 versus 5.4B CNY in FY2020, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was −56.6M CNY in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap 13.4B CNY (≈ $2.0B) · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.6900 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin −0.7% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −64%, 002208 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.79Fair Value ¥3.77Bull ¥5.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
32.7% (2019) → 3.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 581 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.19× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002208
Frequently asked questions
Is Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.77 versus a price of ¥10.42, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002208?
Our model-based fair value for Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is ¥3.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.42.
What is the quality score of 002208?
Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.79, optimistic scenario ¥5.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.77, about −64% upside versus a price of ¥10.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.79, optimistic scenario ¥5.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd it is ¥3.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥10.42. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002208 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥10.42, fair value ¥3.77, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002208?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.77). For Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd the two are ¥6.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd at about 13.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.42; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002208?
Our models span a range for Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.79, base ¥3.77, optimistic ¥5.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥10.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 1.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002208 from its 52-week high?
Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd trades at ¥10.42, about 60% below its 52-week high of ¥25.88 and 61% above the low of ¥6.49 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥10.42, calculated fair value ¥3.77 (−64%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002208 calculated?
We run Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥10.42. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.77, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥1.79 to ¥5.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208) come from?
Earnings per share at Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd grew +0.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate −2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The market capitalisation of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is 13.4B CNY (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is 1.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Earnings per share at Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd are ¥−0.6900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The dividend yield of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The net margin of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is −0.7% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
The operating margin of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Revenue at Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is growing +36.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208)?
Earnings per share at Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd are growing −93.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208) generate?
The free cash flow of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is −142M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd (002208) carry?
The net debt of Hefei Urban Construction Development Co Ltd is 3.3B CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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