Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co (002209) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥8.94 to ¥7.17 (−19.8%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.21 – ¥18.54 · fair‑value band ¥5.37 – ¥8.96 · the ¥11.34 price screens above the ¥7.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co (002209) currently trades at ¥11.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.17, implying the stock looks roughly 36.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co generated revenue of 1.7B CNY at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue declined 26.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 424M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.37 (bear case) to ¥8.96 (bull case); at ¥11.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -37%, 002209 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.36) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.7100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when 002209 reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquid packaging machinery industry in China and internationally.
Full company description
Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquid packaging machinery industry in China and internationally. The company offers water treatment systems, such as beverage treatment, deep membrane treatment, mineral addition, ion exchange, and sterilization systems; pretreatment systems, including clean in place, sugar melting, extraction, and blending systems, as well as sterilization and mixing machines; and integrated filling lines comprising blower-filler-capper monoblock, water filling, and blower-labeler-filler-capper monoblock machines, as well as bottle chemical wet sterilization, preform chemical dry sterilization, bottle physical dry sterilization, and combined dry and wet sterilization products. It also provides PET blow molding machines; beverage and non-beverage filling, aseptic or ultra hygienic filling machines; self and hot melt adhesive labeling machines, and labelers; and full bottle conveyors, carton and tilting conveyors, cooling tunnel/bottle warmers, cap rinsers and elevators, cap blowers, air dryers, visual lamps, and handle application systems, as well as packaging machines, such as palletizing and depalletizing systems, hot shrink wrapper machines, automatic cardboard wraparound case packers, and case packers. The company serves food, beverages, chemicals, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2024 versus ¥930M in FY2020, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥69.8M in FY2024, compounding +40.7%/yr from FY2020.
of which total revenue +4.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002209 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
Compare Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co (002209) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 002209?
What is the quality score of 002209?
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co (002209)?
What is the net profit margin of 002209?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Guangzhou Tech-Long Packaging Machinery Co and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.