Shandong Humon Smelting Co (002237) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 19.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +11.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.06 – ¥22.73 · fair‑value band ¥7.14 – ¥9.48 · the ¥14.25 price screens above the ¥7.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Humon Smelting Co (002237) currently trades at ¥14.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.58, implying the stock looks roughly 46.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Humon Smelting Co generated revenue of 126B CNY at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 73.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 9.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.14 (bear case) to ¥9.48 (bull case); at ¥14.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -47%, 002237 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥12.95) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.82). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. engages in smelting of gold in China and internationally. It is also involved in smelting, refining, and processing of rare and semi metal; precious metal mining; chemical; research, development, and production of high purity metal materials; trade of mineral products; and other businesses.
Full company description
Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. engages in smelting of gold in China and internationally. It is also involved in smelting, refining, and processing of rare and semi metal; precious metal mining; chemical; research, development, and production of high purity metal materials; trade of mineral products; and other businesses. The company offers gold, silver, electrolytic copper, and sulfuric acid; and produces antimony white, bismuth ingots, tellurium ingots, selenium dioxide, metal arsenic, platinum, palladium, high-purity arsenic, and other rare and high-purity metals. Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Yantai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Humon Smelting Co reported revenue of ¥112B in FY2025 versus ¥41.4B in FY2021, a compound +28.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥638M in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
002237 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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