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Shandong Humon Smelting Co (002237) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 19.5B CNY

SH Shandong Humon Smelting Co 002237 · SHE
Price¥14.25
Fair Value¥7.58
Upside-46.8%
Quality41/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 0.5% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
1.03% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range ¥7.14 – ¥9.48 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Share price +11.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 47% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥22.73 ¥8.06 Fair Value ¥7.58 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.06 – ¥22.73 · fair‑value band ¥7.14 – ¥9.48 · the ¥14.25 price screens above the ¥7.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Shandong Humon Smelting Co (002237) currently trades at ¥14.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.58, implying the stock looks roughly 46.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Humon Smelting Co generated revenue of 126B CNY at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 73.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 9.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.14 (bear case) to ¥9.48 (bull case); at ¥14.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -47%, 002237 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥7.08 ¥7.12 ¥6.72 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.36 ¥8.51 ¥9.84 72
Gordon GGM ¥1.04 ¥2.16 ¥3.43 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.03 ¥21.15 ¥29.68 54
Lynch FV ¥7.58 ¥10.83 ¥14.08 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.58 ¥10.83 ¥14.08 46
EPV ¥7.36 ¥8.51 ¥9.51 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.04 ¥2.16 ¥3.43 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.04 ¥1.82 ¥2.27 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.69 ¥7.58 ¥9.48 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.69 ¥7.58 ¥9.48 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.69 ¥7.58 ¥9.48 55
EV/EBIT ¥9.31 ¥12.24 ¥15.17 53
EV/EBITDA ¥9.80 ¥12.89 ¥15.99 54
EV/Revenue ¥8.13 ¥11.40 ¥14.67 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.65 ¥6.23 ¥9.30 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥7.08 ¥7.12 ¥6.72 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.36 ¥8.51 ¥9.84 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥9.06 ¥12.95 ¥16.83 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥12.95) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.82). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 126B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +73.4%
Net margin 0.5%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow −3.3B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 26.7
More key figures
Operating margin 2.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.5100
Dividend yield 1.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +8.3%
Net debt 9.9B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 73
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. engages in smelting of gold in China and internationally. It is also involved in smelting, refining, and processing of rare and semi metal; precious metal mining; chemical; research, development, and production of high purity metal materials; trade of mineral products; and other businesses.

Full company description

Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. engages in smelting of gold in China and internationally. It is also involved in smelting, refining, and processing of rare and semi metal; precious metal mining; chemical; research, development, and production of high purity metal materials; trade of mineral products; and other businesses. The company offers gold, silver, electrolytic copper, and sulfuric acid; and produces antimony white, bismuth ingots, tellurium ingots, selenium dioxide, metal arsenic, platinum, palladium, high-purity arsenic, and other rare and high-purity metals. Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Yantai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shandong Humon Smelting Co reported revenue of ¥112B in FY2025 versus ¥41.4B in FY2021, a compound +28.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥638M in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
112B CNY
Latest YoY
+48.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+30.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+25.5%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y)
+28.5%
Revenue +28.3%/yr
FY21 ¥41.4B
FY22 ¥50.0B
FY23 ¥65.6B
FY24 ¥75.8B
FY25 ¥112B
Net income +8.8%/yr
FY21 ¥455M
FY22 ¥499M
FY23 ¥516M
FY24 ¥537M
FY25 ¥638M

002237 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Humon Smelting Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002237

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Above median
Fair Value upside −47% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Revenue growth 73% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.25× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.47× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 22 · sector 0
HEALTH 88 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 21 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.14 -36%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.20 ¥16.15 -11%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Humon Smelting Co (002237) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.58 versus a price of ¥14.25, about −47% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002237?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Humon Smelting Co is ¥7.58 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥14.25.
What is the quality score of 002237?
Shandong Humon Smelting Co has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shandong Humon Smelting Co (002237)?
Shandong Humon Smelting Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 126B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002237?
The net profit margin of Shandong Humon Smelting Co is about 0.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shandong Humon Smelting Co pay a dividend?
Shandong Humon Smelting Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.03% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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