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Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co (002381) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY

ZD Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co 002381 · SHE
Price¥5.53
Fair Value¥5.57
Upside+0.8%
Quality52/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.80% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: High Range ¥2.97 – ¥5.57 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥4.99 to ¥5.57 (+11.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +5.7% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥2.97 to ¥5.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥8.99 ¥4.83 Fair Value ¥5.57 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.83 – ¥8.99 · fair‑value band ¥2.97 – ¥5.57 · the ¥5.53 price screens below the ¥5.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co (002381) currently trades at ¥5.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.57, implying the stock looks roughly 0.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co generated revenue of 2.6B CNY at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue declined 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.5%. Net debt stands at 139M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.97 (bear case) to ¥5.57 (bull case); at ¥5.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 1%, 002381 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥2.56 ¥3.90 ¥5.79 80
Residual Income ¥3.77 ¥3.70 ¥3.13 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.14 ¥5.36 ¥7.99 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥2.54 ¥4.10 ¥6.46 38
Owner Earnings ¥0.4900 ¥0.8600 ¥1.40 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.14 ¥5.39 ¥8.34 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.88 ¥6.81 ¥10.32 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥1.99 ¥3.20 ¥4.47 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.78 ¥4.77 ¥7.57 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.35 ¥5.75 ¥9.09 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥2.17 ¥3.26 ¥4.62 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.08 ¥3.79 ¥5.10 54
Lynch FV ¥0.8800 ¥1.26 ¥1.64 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.8800 ¥1.26 ¥1.64 46
EPV ¥3.04 ¥3.54 ¥3.97 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.95 ¥3.88 ¥5.88 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.95 ¥3.35 ¥4.10 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥2.02 ¥2.70 ¥3.37 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.02 ¥2.70 ¥3.37 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.02 ¥2.70 ¥3.37 55
EV/EBIT ¥4.18 ¥5.62 ¥7.06 53
EV/EBITDA ¥5.15 ¥6.91 ¥8.67 54
EV/Revenue ¥3.61 ¥5.21 ¥6.81 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.61 ¥3.50 ¥5.23 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥2.56 ¥3.90 ¥5.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.14 ¥5.36 ¥7.99 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.77 ¥3.70 ¥3.13 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.04 ¥3.54 ¥3.97 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥1.80 ¥2.57 ¥3.34 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥4.10) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.6B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.5%
Net margin 2.2%
Return on equity 2.5%
Free cash flow 98.4M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 39.5
More key figures
Operating margin 6.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1400
Dividend yield 1.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -33.3%
Net debt 139M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells rubber conveyor belt products in China and internationally.

Full company description

Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells rubber conveyor belt products in China and internationally. The company provides flame resistant, high temperature resistant, and anti-tear steel cord conveyor belt, as well as low rolling resistance energy-saving and steel cord pipe conveyor belt; and fabric, flame resistant fabric, straight warp, fabric pipe, high temperature resistant fabric, anti-tear fabric, oil resistant fabric, cold resistant fabric, acid-alkaline resistant fabric, anti-adhesion, profiled, and sidewall conveyor belts; and solid woven conveyor belt; as well as aramid belts. Its products are mainly used in coalmines, ports, electric power plants, metallurgy, mines, cement, and other industries. The company was formerly known as TongXiang Duble Arrow Group CO., Ltd. and changed its name to Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Tongxiang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co reported revenue of ¥2.7B in FY2025 versus ¥1.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥65.3M in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.1%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.7%
Revenue +8.7%/yr
FY21 ¥1.9B
FY22 ¥2.3B
FY23 ¥2.6B
FY24 ¥2.7B
FY25 ¥2.7B
Net income −18.6%/yr
FY21 ¥149M
FY22 ¥114M
FY23 ¥242M
FY24 ¥154M
FY25 ¥65.3M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +1.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.1 pp

of which total revenue +10.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.1 pp

EBIT margin −5.6 pp
Tax rate +0.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002381

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside +1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth -13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.26× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 34 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 10 · sector 26
HEALTH 87 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 36 · sector 30

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co (002381) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.57 versus a price of ¥5.53, about +1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 002381?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co is ¥5.57 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥5.53.
What is the quality score of 002381?
Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co (002381)?
Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002381?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co is about 2.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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