Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co. (002406) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 5.4B CNY

Analysis

Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co. (002406) currently trades at ¥7.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.21 — implying the stock looks roughly 41.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 94/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

About the company

Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of transmission drive shafts and related components in China and internationally. The company offers non-constant speed transmission shafts comprising four series of heavy-duty, medium-duty, light-duty, and engineering machinery, which are used in commercial vehicles, engineering machinery, such as loaders and cranes, special vehicles, etc. It also offers constant velocity drive shafts, which are used in passenger cars. The company is also involved in forging processing activities. It exports its products. Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd was founded in 1953 and is based in Xuchang, China.

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.