Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd stock ¥11.36, price ¥29.01, that is 60.8% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.77 – ¥78.01 · fair‑value band ¥7.08 – ¥17.05 · the ¥29.01 price screens above the ¥11.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and sale of fine chemical materials in China and internationally.
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The company offers personal care products, including shampoo, conditioner, shower gel, hand sanitizer, skin care, and disinfection and sanitization products; rheology and sensory modifier, mild and mild taurate surfactant, silicone, emulsifier, cationic conditioner, suspending stabilizer, natural methyl glucoside derivative, chelating agent, naturally derived preservative, and UV filters; makeup products, such as skin feel conditioner-silicone elastomer gel, carbohydrate thickener, and film former; and household cleaning and pet care products, which include amino acid and amphoteric mild surfactant, conditioner, and thickener.
It also provides lithium-ion and sodium-ion battery electrolytes; electrolytes and additives; solid electrolyte; cathode materials; and specialty chemicals. In addition, the company offers lithium battery recycling, personal care, and battery materials solutions.
The company serves the papermaking, construction, pesticides, oil fields, organosilicon products, rubber and plastics, printing, and dyeing industries. Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Guangzhou, China
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) currently trades at ¥29.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.36, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥25.83 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥29.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.95, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.08 (bear) to ¥17.05 (bull), the price of ¥29.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 16.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 11.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 55.4B CNY (≈ $8.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 1.89 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.41 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 16.5% · Return on equity 27.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −61%, 002709 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥7.08Fair Value ¥11.36Bull¥17.05
Price ¥29.01 · Downside -60.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +33.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.9% vs 28.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+48.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.2% a year for the price and +46.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Global lead in lithium battery electrolytes contrasts with modest returns and no evident durable advantages.
Main risk: Lithium oversupply and pricing pressure across the sector could reduce electrolyte demand and margins.
Tinci Materials holds the top global position in lithium battery electrolytes with strong shares in key inputs. It is now funding overseas plants through a Hong Kong listing to tap energy storage and EV demand abroad, yet half-year results reflect a price spike and free cash flow has turned negative. Will international expansion reinforce its low-cost edge or highlight revenue concentration risks?
Compare Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−60.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)16.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)131.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.10× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.89× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow105.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002709
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.36 versus a price of ¥29.01, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002709?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is ¥11.36 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥29.01.
What is the quality score of 002709?
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.36 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.08, optimistic scenario ¥17.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.36, about 61% lower versus a price of ¥29.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.08, optimistic scenario ¥17.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +41.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002709 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd that is +41.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd grew +32.2 % a year. The price currently implies +41.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (+41.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.94 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd it is ¥11.36 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥29.01. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 002709 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥29.01, fair value ¥11.36, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002709?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥29.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.36). For Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥17.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd at about 55.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥29.01; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002709?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.08, base ¥11.36, optimistic ¥17.05 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥29.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002709?
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 27.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002709 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥29.01, about 55% below its 52-week high of ¥63.81 and 12% above the low of ¥25.85 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥29.01, calculated fair value ¥11.36 (−61%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002709 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥29.01. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.36, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥17.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥7.08 to ¥17.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd grew +21.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +30.7 %, EBIT margin −5.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 55.4B CNY (≈ $8.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 1.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd are ¥2.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 8.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 16.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is growing +132% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd are growing +538% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd (002709) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co Ltd is 182M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026