Xiamen Jihong Co (002803) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 9.9B CNY

A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.14 – ¥34.51 · fair‑value band ¥7.88 – ¥13.13 · the ¥19.48 price screens above the ¥10.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Xiamen Jihong Co (002803) currently trades at ¥19.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.51, implying the stock looks roughly 46.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Xiamen Jihong Co generated revenue of 7.0B CNY at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 22.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 478M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.88 (bear case) to ¥13.13 (bull case); at ¥19.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -46%, 002803 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥20.67) versus Asset-Based (¥4.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Xiamen Jihong Co., Ltd engages in the cross-border social e-commerce and paper packaging business in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Cross-border Social Ecommerce, Paper Packaging, and Others.

Full company description

Xiamen Jihong Co., Ltd engages in the cross-border social e-commerce and paper packaging business in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Cross-border Social Ecommerce, Paper Packaging, and Others. It offers marketing solutions, such as marketing planning, technical implementation, and online media resource integration; single-page advertisements on social software; one pack one code (OPOC) service, including marketing, traceability, and distribution solutions. The company also provides packaging solutions comprising folding cardboard, tobacco packaging, recyclable paper bag, QSR food grade packaging, cluster packaging, and personalized packaging, as well as concept, design, and development of packaging and automation machines, manufacturing, and logistics services. In addition, it is involved in incidental trading; and import and export business. The company was formerly known as Xiamen Jihong Package Technology Ltd. and changed its name to Xiamen Jihong Technology Co., Ltd. in September 2019. Xiamen Jihong Co., Ltd was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Xiamen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xiamen Jihong Co reported revenue of ¥6.7B in FY2025 versus ¥5.2B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥277M in FY2025, compounding +5.1%/yr from FY2021.

002803 screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.