Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co (002830) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price −15.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.58 – ¥33.29 · fair‑value band ¥3.23 – ¥5.39 · the ¥13.84 price screens above the ¥4.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co (002830) currently trades at ¥13.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.31, implying the stock looks roughly 68.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co generated revenue of 705M CNY at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 265M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.23 (bear case) to ¥5.39 (bull case); at ¥13.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -69%, 002830 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥7.69) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co.,Ltd. provides home decoration and furnishing services in China. The company's services include design, engineering construction, wood product customization, decorative material and accessories purchase, and after-sales service, as well as property leasing activities. Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co.,Ltd.
Full company description
Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co.,Ltd. provides home decoration and furnishing services in China. The company's services include design, engineering construction, wood product customization, decorative material and accessories purchase, and after-sales service, as well as property leasing activities. Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is based in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co reported revenue of ¥705M in FY2025 versus ¥884M in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥42.8M in FY2025, compounding +10.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002830 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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