Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd stock ¥4.37, price ¥18.94, that is 76.9% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.37 – ¥32.80 · fair‑value band ¥3.65 – ¥5.09 · the ¥18.94 price screens above the ¥4.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, development, production, and sale of furniture in China.
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It offers customized cabinets, wardrobes, wooden doors, and other supporting home products; and provides installation and after-sales services. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853) currently trades at ¥18.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.37, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: ¥3.65 (bear) to ¥5.09 (bull), the price of ¥18.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd reported revenue of 567M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −25.3%/yr. Reported net income was −38.7M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5B CNY (≈ $519M) Small · P/S ratio 7.06 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1600 · Net margin −6.2% · Return on equity −3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −9.7% · Revenue (TTM) 489M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −77%, 002853 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥3.65Fair Value ¥4.37Bull¥5.09
Price ¥18.94 · Downside -76.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−36.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.2% (2020) → −1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 297 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002853
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.37 versus a price of ¥18.94, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002853?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is ¥4.37 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥18.94.
What is the quality score of 002853?
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.37 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.65, optimistic scenario ¥5.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.37, about 77% lower versus a price of ¥18.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.65, optimistic scenario ¥5.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 489M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd it is ¥4.37 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥18.94. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 002853 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥18.94, fair value ¥4.37, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002853?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥18.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.37). For Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd the two are ¥14.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd at about 3.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥18.94; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002853?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.65, base ¥4.37, optimistic ¥5.09 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥18.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −3.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002853 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd trades at ¥18.94, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥32.80 and 42% above the low of ¥13.37 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, SharkNinja, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥18.94, calculated fair value ¥4.37 (−77%), Quality Score 55/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002853 calculated?
We run Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥4.37 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥18.94. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.37, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853) come from?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd grew +0.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is 3.5B CNY (≈ $519M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is 7.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd are ¥−0.1600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
The net margin of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is −6.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is −8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is −9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Revenue at Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is growing −24.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd are growing +11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd is −77.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd (002853) hold?
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 273M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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