Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co (002853) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 4.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥19.70 to ¥4.37 (−77.8%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +6.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.37 – ¥32.80 · fair‑value band ¥3.65 – ¥5.09 · the ¥21.72 price screens above the ¥4.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co (002853) currently trades at ¥21.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.37, implying the stock looks roughly 79.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co generated revenue of 523M CNY at a net margin of -8.8%. Revenue declined 34.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 273M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.65 (bear case) to ¥5.09 (bull case); at ¥21.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -80%, 002853 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥4.32) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, development, production, and sale of furniture in China. It offers customized cabinets, wardrobes, wooden doors, and other supporting home products; and provides installation and after-sales services.
Full company description
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, development, production, and sale of furniture in China. It offers customized cabinets, wardrobes, wooden doors, and other supporting home products; and provides installation and after-sales services. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Zhongshan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co reported revenue of ¥567M in FY2025 versus ¥1.8B in FY2021, a compound −25.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥38.7M in FY2025.
002853 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →
Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥82.71 | ¥107.22 | +30% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥38.25 | ¥88.02 | +130% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.46 | ¥36.04 | +68% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 8,655 TWD | 1,917 TWD | -78% |
| Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 | ¥155.59 | ¥38.95 | -75% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $154.53 | $89.07 | -42% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.33 | ¥48.03 | +82% |
| Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 | ¥43.85 | ¥44.84 | +2% |
| COWAY Co 021240 | 96,700 KRW | 112,530 KRW | +16% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.13 | ¥54.11 | +8% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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