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The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited (0045) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$8.8B

TH The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited 0045 · HK
PriceHK$5.80
Fair ValueHK$3.26
Upside-43.8%
Quality52/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 4.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/14)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: High Range HK$2.45 – HK$4.54 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price +5.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$4.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$2.45 to HK$4.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$9.14 HK$5.10 Fair Value HK$3.26 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.10 – HK$9.14 · fair‑value band HK$2.45 – HK$4.54 · the HK$5.80 price screens above the HK$3.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited (0045) currently trades at HK$5.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.26, implying the stock looks roughly 43.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited generated revenue of HK$8.0B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue declined 17.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at HK$15.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.45 (bear case) to HK$4.54 (bull case); at HK$5.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -44%, 0045 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.0800 to HK$14.51). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.4100 HK$2.51 80
Residual Income HK$14.51 HK$13.33 HK$9.43 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.43 HK$4.04 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5700 HK$3.12 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.44 HK$4.35 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.85 HK$6.47 HK$11.90 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.2300 HK$2.01 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.9100 HK$3.62 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.6800 HK$4.32 HK$9.25 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.0800 HK$1.87 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.31 HK$4.08 HK$5.43 54
Lynch FV HK$0.8900 HK$1.27 HK$1.65 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.8900 HK$1.27 HK$1.65 46
EPV HK$0.4400 HK$1.02 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$3.17 HK$4.22 HK$5.28 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.45 HK$3.26 HK$4.08 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.45 HK$3.26 HK$4.08 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.31 HK$5.90 HK$8.50 53
EV/EBITDA HK$4.57 HK$7.59 HK$10.60 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.27 HK$2.99 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.83 HK$14.51 HK$21.66 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.4100 HK$2.51 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.43 HK$4.04 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$14.51 HK$13.33 HK$9.43 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.4400 HK$1.02 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.61 HK$3.73 HK$4.85 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$14.51) versus Growth DCF (HK$0.4100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$8.0B
Revenue growth (YoY) -17.2%
Net margin 4.0%
Return on equity 0.9%
Free cash flow HK$510M FY2025
P/E ratio 27.7
More key figures
Operating margin 14.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.1700
EPS growth (YoY) -29.9%
Net debt HK$15.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the ownership, development, and management of luxury hotels and commercial and residential properties in China, Europe, the United States, and the rest of Asia. The company operates through Hotels, Commercial Properties, and Peak Tram, Retail and Others segments.

Full company description

The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the ownership, development, and management of luxury hotels and commercial and residential properties in China, Europe, the United States, and the rest of Asia. The company operates through Hotels, Commercial Properties, and Peak Tram, Retail and Others segments. It is involved in operating hotels; leasing of commercial retail arcades and office premises located within the hotel buildings; development, leasing, and sale of luxury residential apartments; and operating food and beverage outlets. The company also engages in operating Peak Tram and The Quail; wholesaling and retailing of food and beverage products; and golf club, resort, and property investment. In addition, it offers laundry and dry-cleaning services; and management and consultancy services for clubs. The company was formerly known as The Hongkong Hotel Company, Limited. The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited was incorporated in 1866 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited reported revenue of HK$8.0B in FY2025 versus HK$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$320M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$8.0B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+43.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.2%
Revenue +23.2%/yr
FY21 HK$3.5B
FY22 HK$4.2B
FY23 HK$8.1B
FY24 HK$10.3B
FY25 HK$8.0B
Net income
FY21 −HK$120M
FY22 −HK$488M
FY23 HK$146M
FY24 −HK$943M
FY25 HK$320M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −15.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.9 pp

of which total revenue +3.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp

EBIT margin −6.3 pp
Tax rate −4.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −7.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0045 screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0045

Peer Group

Lodging · 168 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside −44% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Below median
Revenue growth -17% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.22× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.24× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 4.79× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 1
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 4 · sector 11
HEALTH 89 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Marriott International, Inc MAR $369.05 $135.64 -63%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT $328.48 $123.67 -62%
InterContinental Hotels Group IHG $159.87 $85.18 -47%
Hyatt Hotels Corporation H $191.00 $47.69 -75%
H World Group HTHT $42.67 $47.55 +11%
Accor SA AC €47.25 €39.26 -17%
The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL ₹743.20 ₹260.68 -65%
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH $78.54 $24.02 -69%
Hanjin Kal, 180640 113,500 KRW 36,890 KRW -67%
Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 16.00 SAR 11.64 SAR -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited (0045) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.26 versus a price of HK$5.80, about −44% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0045?
Our model-based fair value for The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited is HK$3.26 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$5.80.
What is the quality score of 0045?
The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited (0045)?
The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$8.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0045?
The net profit margin of The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited is about 4.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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