Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd HK$3.22, price HK$5.50, upside -41.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.10 – HK$9.14 · fair‑value band HK$2.45 – HK$5.87 · the HK$5.50 price screens above the HK$3.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the ownership, development, and management of luxury hotels and commercial and residential properties in China, Europe, the United States, and the rest of Asia. The company operates through Hotels, Commercial Properties, and Peak Tram, Retail and Others segments.
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The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the ownership, development, and management of luxury hotels and commercial and residential properties in China, Europe, the United States, and the rest of Asia. The company operates through Hotels, Commercial Properties, and Peak Tram, Retail and Others segments. It is involved in operating hotels; leasing of commercial retail arcades and office premises located within the hotel buildings; development, leasing, and sale of luxury residential apartments; and operating food and beverage outlets. The company also engages in operating Peak Tram and The Quail; wholesaling and retailing of food and beverage products; and golf club, resort, and property investment. In addition, it offers laundry and dry-cleaning services; and management and consultancy services for clubs. The company was formerly known as The Hongkong Hotel Company, Limited. The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited was incorporated in 1866 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) currently trades at HK$5.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.22, implying the stock looks roughly 70.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$14.51 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$5.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.27, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.45 (bear) to HK$5.87 (bull), the price of HK$5.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd reported revenue of HK$8.0B in FY2025 versus HK$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$320M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$9.2B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 27.7 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1700 · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −41%, 0045 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.45Fair Value HK$3.22Bull HK$5.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9% vs −12%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.1% a year for the price.
Compare Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 169 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)27.7× · Pricier than median
P/B0.25× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.15× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF2.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG4.79× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0045
Frequently asked questions
Is Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.22 versus a price of HK$5.50, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0045?
Our model-based fair value for Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is HK$3.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.50.
What is the quality score of 0045?
Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.45, optimistic scenario HK$5.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.22, about −41% upside versus a price of HK$5.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.45, optimistic scenario HK$5.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$8.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0045 use?
Our models discount Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd that is +25.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd grew +24.1 % a year. The price currently implies +25.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (+25.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.56 %: that much free cash flow Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd it is HK$3.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$5.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0045 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$5.50, fair value HK$3.22, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0045?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.22). For Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd the two are HK$2.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd worth?
The market values Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd at about HK$9.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0045?
Our models span a range for Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.45, base HK$3.22, optimistic HK$5.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$5.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0045?
Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.8, P/B 0.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 0045?
The PEG ratio of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is 4.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.9%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0045 from its 52-week high?
Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd trades at HK$5.50, about 21% below its 52-week high of HK$7.00 and 6% above the low of HK$5.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$5.50, calculated fair value HK$3.22 (−41%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0045 calculated?
We run Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$5.50. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.22, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.45 to HK$5.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) come from?
Earnings per share at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd grew −15.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate −4.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The market capitalisation of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is HK$9.2B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Earnings per share at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd are HK$−0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The net margin of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is 4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
The operating margin of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Revenue at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is growing −17.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045)?
Earnings per share at Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd are growing −29.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd (0045) carry?
The net debt of Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels Ltd is HK$15.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 30.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026