Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd (0098) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$2.7B (≈ $349M) · ISIN KYG9828C1078

What is Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd really worth?

XA Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd 0098 · HK

PriceHK$5.57

Fair ValueHK$22.42

Upside+302.9%

Quality53/100

A solid business, trading 75% below our fair value of HK$22.42.

As of Aug 24, 2026, the fair value of Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd is HK$22.42 per share against a price of HK$5.57, so the fair value sits 303% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (9/13)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.7 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin

!Narrow moat 30/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·8.07% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$15.69 – HK$31.93

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 24, 2026, revised from HK$22.37 to HK$22.42 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −16.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$15.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (HK$15.69 to HK$31.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.62 – HK$9.15 · fair‑value band HK$15.69 – HK$31.93 · the HK$5.57 price screens below the HK$22.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd (0098) currently trades at HK$5.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$22.42, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$26.69 per share, and 23 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$5.57 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$8.60, and 0 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.7B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at HK$3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$15.69 (bear case) to HK$31.93 (bull case); at HK$5.57, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 303%, 0098 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1303 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$9.53 HK$17.19 HK$30.29 77

Growth DCF HK$9.40 HK$16.23 HK$27.39 76

Residual Income HK$12.97 HK$14.35 HK$20.99 76

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$9.53 HK$17.19 HK$30.29 77

Owner Earnings HK$19.26 HK$34.84 HK$61.48 73

5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.77 HK$13.37 HK$20.99 71

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.66 HK$13.14 HK$20.01 74

5Y P/E Exit HK$15.11 HK$28.75 HK$44.70 69

10Y Revenue Exit HK$8.06 HK$13.56 HK$22.04 65

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$8.22 HK$13.39 HK$21.22 67

10Y P/E Exit HK$13.08 HK$24.68 HK$41.74 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$10.22 HK$50.11 HK$69.07 64

Lynch FV HK$13.47 HK$19.24 HK$25.01 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$13.47 HK$19.24 HK$25.01 57

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$4.99 HK$9.95 HK$15.07 67

DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.99 HK$8.60 HK$10.50 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$19.16 HK$25.55 HK$31.94 63

P/S Multiple HK$19.16 HK$25.55 HK$31.94 58

P/B Multiple HK$19.16 HK$25.55 HK$31.94 55

EV/EBITDA HK$7.28 HK$9.67 HK$12.05 67

EV/Revenue HK$6.97 HK$9.90 HK$12.84 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$7.47 HK$10.01 HK$14.95 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$9.40 HK$16.23 HK$27.39 76

Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.77 HK$13.25 HK$20.45 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$12.97 HK$14.35 HK$20.99 76

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$18.68 HK$26.69 HK$34.69 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$26.69) versus Dividend Discount (HK$8.60). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 3.8 as of Jul 1, 2026

P/S ratio 0.11 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.6400 price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.8

Dividend yield 8.1% payout 70.2%

Net margin 3.1% FY2025

Return on equity 10.3% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% avg 5y

Operating margin 3.5% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$20.7B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +8.3% 3y avg +6.9%

EPS growth (YoY) −19.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$317M FY2025

Net debt HK$3.6B FY2025 · ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 44

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 46

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 29

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 64

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 68

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 90

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 17

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 0

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminium profiles in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Non-Construction Aluminium Profiles, Construction Aluminium Profiles, and All Other segments. The Non-Construction Aluminium Profiles segment offers plain aluminium profiles primarily for non-construction usage. The Construction Aluminium Profiles segment provides aluminium profiles with surface finishing, including anodic oxidation, electrophoresis coating, powder coating, and PVDF coating aluminium profiles for use in architecture decoration. The All Other segment offers service contracts related to aluminium products; sells office premises and residential properties; and sells aluminium panels and alloys, moulds, and spare parts. It is also involved in new materials technology research and development. Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Foshan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 20.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 15.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was 632M CNY in FY2025, compounding −8.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 71/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$20.7B

Latest YoY

+9.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+11.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+14.8%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+4.2% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−3.9%

Dividend yield8.1%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −3.9% vs 10Y 9.0%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7.3% (2020) → −1.1% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop91% (2008) · in HKD

Revenue +7.6%/yr

FY21 15.4B CNY

FY22 16.9B CNY

FY23 17.4B CNY

FY24 18.9B CNY

FY25 20.7B CNY

Net income −8.1%/yr

FY21 888M CNY

FY22 458M CNY

FY23 804M CNY

FY24 826M CNY

FY25 632M CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +14.2 % p.a.

Revenue per share +15.9 %

of which total revenue +16.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin −1.9 %

Tax rate +0.4 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$22.42 +75%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0098.HK

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%

Revenue growth 8% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 8.1% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 0.40× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.43× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 0.13× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 2.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 8

FUTURE42 · sector 28

PAST41 · sector 34

HEALTH80 · sector 91

DIVIDEND100 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379	¥18.28	¥23.44	+28%
China Hongqiao Group 1378	HK$22.64	HK$45.69	+102%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO	₹1,028	₹997.35	−3%
Aluminum Corporation 601600	¥9.45	¥16.30	+72%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY	kr 92.30	kr 58.10	−37%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869	7.90 MYR	3.88 MYR	−51%
Alcoa Corporation AAI	A$73.19	A$49.53	−32%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807	¥25.88	¥29.68	+15%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933	¥27.36	¥30.28	+11%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532	¥12.67	¥21.86	+73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd (0098) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$22.42 versus a price of HK$5.57, about +303% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0098?

Our model-based fair value for Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd is HK$22.42 (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.57.

What is the quality score of 0098?

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd (0098)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$22.42 (as of Aug 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$15.69, optimistic scenario HK$31.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$22.42, about +303% upside versus a price of HK$5.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$15.69, optimistic scenario HK$31.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd (0098)?

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0098?

The net profit margin of Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.07% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 24, 2026).

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