Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Norsk Hydro ASA stock NOK 66.35, price NOK 68.76, that is 3.5% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 42.87 – kr 119.45 · fair‑value band kr 49.76 – kr 82.94 · the kr 68.76 price screens above the kr 66.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Norsk Hydro ASA engages in power production, bauxite extraction, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, recycling activities, and extruded solutions worldwide. The company operates through Hydro Bauxite & Alumina, Hydro Aluminium Metal, Hydro Metal Markets, Hydro Extrusions, and Hydro Energy segments.
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The Hydro Bauxite & Alumina segment engages in bauxite mining activities, production of alumina, and related commercial activities, primarily the sale of alumina. The Hydro Aluminium Metal segment is involved in the primary aluminum production casting activities.
This segment principally offers extrusion ingots, foundry alloys, and sheet and standard ingots. The Hydro Metal Markets segment sells products from the company's primary metal plants; operates recyclers; and trades in physical and financial metals.
The Hydro Extrusions segment offers extrusion profiles, building systems, and precision tubing products for construction, automotive and heating, and ventilation and air conditioning sectors, as well as operates recycling facilities.
The Hydro Energy segment engages in the trading and wholesale business in Brazil; energy sourcing operations; and operation of power stations in Norway, as well as renewable energy production, such as wind and solar. The company also provides extruded solutions.
Norsk Hydro ASA was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) currently trades at kr 68.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 66.35, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 96.20 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 68.76 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 17.74, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 49.76 (bear) to kr 82.94 (bull), the price of kr 68.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Norsk Hydro ASA reported revenue of 208B NOK in FY2025 versus 150B NOK in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 6.7B NOK in FY2025, compounding −13.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 135B NOK (≈ $14.5B) Large · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) kr 6.53 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −4%, NHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 49.76Fair Value kr 66.35Bullkr 82.94
Price kr 68.76 · Downside -3.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 2.99 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.0% vs 13.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Limited public evidence of durable advantage in the aluminum sector stands as the core assessment, with low ROE and net margins as the main weakness amid commodity exposure.
Main risk: Chinese producers with coal-based power and state support could increase global supply and force lower prices or margins on European aluminum makers including Hydro.
Bull case: Hydro could leverage its renewable power base and low-carbon aluminum to secure long-term contracts for Europe's grid and energy transition, offsetting competitive pressures.
Bear case: Intensified Chinese overcapacity combined with energy cost spikes could erode European market share and compress margins across Hydro's primary aluminum operations.
Norsk Hydro faces extra costs at its Alunorte alumina refinery after gas supply disruptions since August, with spot purchases adding an estimated 75 to 100 million dollars impact in the third quarter and 90 to 110 million in the fourth. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Does the push into renewable power and wire rod supply for Europe's grid outweigh the alumina segment pressure, or does energy cost volatility dominate earnings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)24.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Is Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 66.35 versus a price of kr 68.76, about 4% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NHY?
Our model-based fair value for Norsk Hydro ASA is kr 66.35 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 68.76.
What is the quality score of NHY?
Norsk Hydro ASA has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 66.35 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 49.76, optimistic scenario kr 82.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Norsk Hydro ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 66.35, about 4% lower versus a price of kr 68.76 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 49.76, optimistic scenario kr 82.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Norsk Hydro ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 206B NOK (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Norsk Hydro ASA pay a dividend?
Norsk Hydro ASA currently shows a dividend yield of 4.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Norsk Hydro ASA would have to grow free cash flow by -2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NHY use?
Our models discount Norsk Hydro ASA at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Norsk Hydro ASA that is -2.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Norsk Hydro ASA grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies -2.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Norsk Hydro ASA (-2.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.68 %: that much free cash flow Norsk Hydro ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Norsk Hydro ASA it is kr 66.35 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of kr 68.76. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Norsk Hydro ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NHY trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 68.76, fair value kr 66.35, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 68.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 66.35). For Norsk Hydro ASA the two are kr 2.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Norsk Hydro ASA worth?
The market values Norsk Hydro ASA at about 135B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is kr 68.76; our models calculate a fair value of kr 66.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHY?
Our models span a range for Norsk Hydro ASA: cautious scenario kr 49.76, base kr 66.35, optimistic kr 82.94 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price kr 68.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NHY?
Norsk Hydro ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 66.35 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 18.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NHY?
The PEG ratio of Norsk Hydro ASA is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Norsk Hydro ASA (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NHY from its 52-week high?
Norsk Hydro ASA trades at kr 68.76, about 42% below its 52-week high of kr 119.45 and 5% above the low of kr 65.32 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 66.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Norsk Hydro ASA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Norsk Hydro ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price kr 68.76, calculated fair value kr 66.35 (−4%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHY calculated?
We run Norsk Hydro ASA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 66.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Norsk Hydro ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was kr 68.76. Our model-based fair value is kr 66.35, about 4% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Norsk Hydro ASA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Norsk Hydro ASA grew +27.7 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin +16.3 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Norsk Hydro ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The market capitalisation of Norsk Hydro ASA is 135B NOK (≈ $14.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Norsk Hydro ASA is 0.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Earnings per share at Norsk Hydro ASA are kr 6.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The dividend yield of Norsk Hydro ASA is 4.4% (payout 45.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The net margin of Norsk Hydro ASA is 6.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Norsk Hydro ASA is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Norsk Hydro ASA is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
The operating margin of Norsk Hydro ASA is 24.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Revenue at Norsk Hydro ASA is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY)?
Earnings per share at Norsk Hydro ASA are growing +145% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) carry?
The net debt of Norsk Hydro ASA is 20.5B NOK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026