Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · NO · Market cap 167B NOK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 72.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 39.24 – kr 119.45 · fair‑value band kr 43.58 – kr 72.63 · the kr 89.64 price screens above the kr 58.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) currently trades at kr 89.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 58.10, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Norsk Hydro ASA generated revenue of 201B NOK at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at 20.5B NOK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 43.58 (bear case) to kr 72.63 (bull case); at kr 89.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -35%, NHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (kr 90.41) versus Earnings-Based (kr 17.74). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Norsk Hydro ASA engages in power production, bauxite extraction, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, recycling activities, and extruded solutions worldwide. The company operates through Hydro Bauxite & Alumina, Hydro Aluminium Metal, Hydro Metal Markets, Hydro Extrusions, and Hydro Energy segments.
Full company description
Norsk Hydro ASA engages in power production, bauxite extraction, alumina refining, aluminum smelting, recycling activities, and extruded solutions worldwide. The company operates through Hydro Bauxite & Alumina, Hydro Aluminium Metal, Hydro Metal Markets, Hydro Extrusions, and Hydro Energy segments. The Hydro Bauxite & Alumina segment engages in bauxite mining activities, production of alumina, and related commercial activities, primarily the sale of alumina. The Hydro Aluminium Metal segment is involved in the primary aluminum production casting activities. This segment principally offers extrusion ingots, foundry alloys, and sheet and standard ingots. The Hydro Metal Markets segment sells products from the company's primary metal plants; operates recyclers; and trades in physical and financial metals. The Hydro Extrusions segment offers extrusion profiles, building systems, and precision tubing products for construction, automotive and heating, and ventilation and air conditioning sectors, as well as operates recycling facilities. The Hydro Energy segment engages in the trading and wholesale business in Brazil; energy sourcing operations; and operation of power stations in Norway, as well as renewable energy production, such as wind and solar. The company also provides extruded solutions. Norsk Hydro ASA was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Norsk Hydro ASA reported revenue of kr 208B in FY2025 versus kr 150B in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was kr 6.7B in FY2025, compounding −13.8%/yr from FY2021.
NHY screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Norsk Hydro ASA (NHYDY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Operational Performance Amid ...
- Norsk Hydro: Operational strength delivering solid results
- Norsk Hydro: Reminder - Invitation to Hydro's second quarter results 2026
- How Slovalco Restart Plans Could Add Industrial Depth to Norsk Hydro ASA’s (NHYDY) Recycling Position
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.72 | ¥7.01 | +49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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